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| Indexado |
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| DOI | 10.1002/2014WR015426 | ||||
| Año | 2014 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
We provide a framework for careful analysis of the different methodological choices we make when constructing multimodel ensemble seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic variables. Specifically, we focus on three common modeling decisions: (i) number of models, (ii) multimodel combination approach, and (iii) lead time for prediction. The analysis scheme includes a multimodel ensemble forecasting algorithm based on nonparametric regression, a set of alternatives for the options previously pointed, and a selection of probabilistic verification methods for ensemble forecast evaluation. The usefulness of this framework is tested through an example application aimed to generate spring/summer streamflow forecasts at multiple locations in Central Chile. Results demonstrate the high impact that subjectivity in decision-making may have on the quality of ensemble seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts. In particular, we note that the probabilistic verification criteria may lead to different choices regarding the number of models or the multimodel combination method. We also illustrate how this objective analysis scheme may lead to results that are extremely relevant for the case study presented here, such as skillful seasonal streamflow predictions for very dry conditions.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MENDOZA-ZUNIGA, PABLO ANDRES | Hombre |
UNIV COLORADO - Estados Unidos
NCAR - Estados Unidos University of Colorado Boulder - Estados Unidos National Center for Atmospheric Research - Estados Unidos |
| 2 | Rajagopalan, Balaji | - |
UNIV COLORADO - Estados Unidos
University of Colorado Boulder - Estados Unidos |
| 3 | Clark, Martyn P. | Hombre |
NCAR - Estados Unidos
National Center for Atmospheric Research - Estados Unidos |
| 4 | Cortes, Gonzalo | Hombre |
UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES - Estados Unidos
University of California, Los Angeles - Estados Unidos |
| 5 | MCPHEE-TORRES, JAMES PETER | Hombre |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
Advanced Mining Technology Center - Chile |
| Fuente |
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| National Science Foundation |
| U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) |
| Cooperative Institute for Research and Environmental Sciences (CIRES) |
| Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) |
| Directorate for Geosciences |
| Agradecimiento |
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| The authors wish to thank Direccion General de Aguas for providing the streamflow and snowpack data, Yohann Videla for his assistance with GIS datasets, and James McCreight, Katrina Grantz, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful and insightful comments in improving this manuscript. The first author acknowledges support from the Cooperative Institute for Research and Environmental Sciences (CIRES), Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). |