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Air quality forecasting for winter-time PM2.5 episodes occurring in multiple cities in central and southern Chile
Indexado
WoS WOS:000369845300033
DOI 10.1002/2015JD023949
Año 2016
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Episodic air quality degradation due to particles occurs in multiple cities in central and southern Chile during the austral winter reaching levels up to 300-800 mu g/m(3) hourly PM2.5, which can be associated with severe effects on human health. An air quality prediction system is developed to predict such events in near real time up to 3days in advance for nine cities with regular air quality monitoring: Santiago, Rancagua, Curico, Talca, Chillan, Los angeles, Temuco, Valdivia, and Osorno. The system uses the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model configured with a nested 2km grid-spacing domain to predict weather and inert tracers. The tracers are converted to hourly PM2.5 concentrations using an observationally based calibration which is substantially less computationally intensive than a full chemistry model. The conversion takes into account processes occurring in these cities, including higher likelihood of episode occurrence during weekends and during colder days, the latter related to increased wood-burning-stove activity for heating. The system is calibrated and evaluated for April-August 2014 where it has an overall skill of 53-72% of episodes accurately forecasted (61-76% for the best initialization) which is better than persistence for most stations. Forecasts one, two, and three days in advance all have skill in forecasting events but often present large variability within them due to different meteorological initializations. The system is being implemented in Chile to assist authority decisions not only to warn the population but also to take contingency-based emission restrictions to try to avoid severe pollution events.

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Saide, P. Hombre Minist Environm - Chile
Universidad de Chile - Chile
Natl Ctr Atmospher Res - Estados Unidos
2 MENA-CARRASCO, MARCELO ANDRES Hombre Minist Environm - Chile
3 Tolvett, Sebastian Hombre Minist Environm - Chile
Universidad Tecnológica Metropolitana - Chile
4 HERNANDEZ-CACERES, PABLO IGNACIO Hombre Minist Environm - Chile
5 Carmichael, Gregory R. Hombre UNIV IOWA - Estados Unidos

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Origen de Citas Identificadas



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Citas identificadas: Las citas provienen de documentos incluidos en la base de datos de DATACIENCIA

Citas Identificadas: 23.08 %
Citas No-identificadas: 76.92 %

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Citas identificadas: Las citas provienen de documentos incluidos en la base de datos de DATACIENCIA

Citas Identificadas: 23.08 %
Citas No-identificadas: 76.92 %

Financiamiento



Fuente
National Science Foundation
CONICYT/FONDAP
NASA
University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
This research was supported in part through computational resources provided by the University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, and with the aid of CONICYT/Fondap grants 15110017 and 15110009 (Center for Climate and Resilience Research), and NASA Grant #NNX11AI52G. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation. Thanks to Marcelo Corral (Division of Air Quality and Climate Change of the Chilean Ministry of the Environment) and Louisa Emmons (NCAR) for their comments that helped improve the study. Contact P. E. Saide (saide@ucar.edu) for data and code requests.

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