The pelagic larval stage of the common Caribbean lobster Panulirus argus, takes place during 6-8 months in ocean waters away of shelf. Predicting larval recruitment and identify the areas of arrival and settlement, and assess the quality of their breeding habitats, have been permanent necessity in studies of population dynamics of this fishery resource. The purpose of this work was to determine the potential percentage of self-recruitment larvae to the southwest Cuba shelf, and to identify the main areas of arrival or settlement of puerulus. The simulation, using particles released in a major period of spawning and larval recruitment, using the numerical model LADIM developed in the Institute of Marine Research in Norway. The percentage of self-recruited larvae was 33.8%. The zones of arrival and greater density of particles, according to modeling, coincided with the areas that by in situ studies have shown greater settlement of puerulus and have been classified as natural nurseries of post-larvae and juveniles. This suggests that hydrodynamics ocean-shelf connectivity in the southwest region of Cuba, it is decisive to the success of recruitment and distribution of lobster larvae, in the final stage.