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Evaluating the Impact of Different Methods on the Timing and Duration of RSV Epidemics: Analysis of Surveillance Data From the GERi (Global Epidemiology of RSV in Hospitalized and Community Care) Study
Indexado
WoS WOS:001499721900001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:105007065180
DOI 10.1111/IRV.70123
Año 2025
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Background We previously reviewed methods for estimating the timing of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics. This study examines the impact of various estimation methods on determining the start, end, duration, and capture rate of RSV epidemics. Methods We applied eight estimation methods to RSV surveillance data from the Global Epidemiology of RSV (GERi) study, covering Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, and the United States: 3% and 10% positivity rate, moving epidemic method (MEM), mean positivity, 1.2% total detections, mean and 60% mean number, and 75% average annual percentage (AAP). We compared the median start, end, duration, and capture rate of RSV epidemics obtained from these methods. Results Within countries, the median duration of RSV epidemics varied by over 10 weeks, and the median capture rates ranged from > 95 to < 60%, depending on the estimation method. Generally, the 3% positivity rate method identified the longest RSV epidemics (earliest median start and latest end, and highest capture rate). The 10% positivity rate, MEM, and 75% AAP methods indicated the shortest RSV epidemics with the lowest capture rate. The remaining four methods produced intermediate results. Conclusions These findings underscore the importance of selecting estimation methods suited to the surveillance system and the intended use, whether for outbreak alert, planning, or targeted interventions.

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Infectious Diseases
Virology
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Staadegaard, Lisa Mujer Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos
2 Del Riccio, Marco - Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
UNIV FLORENCE - Italia
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos
Università degli Studi di Firenze - Italia
3 Heemskerk, Susanne - Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos
4 Duckers, Michel Hombre Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Univ Groningen - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos
Rijksuniversiteit Groningen - Países Bajos
5 Fasce, Rodrigo A. - Publ Hlth Inst Chile - Chile
Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile - Chile
6 Bustos, Patricia - Publ Hlth Inst Chile - Chile
Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile - Chile
7 Huang, Q. Sue Mujer Inst Environm Sci & Res - Nueva Zelanda
Institute of Environmental Science and Research - Nueva Zelanda
8 Cohen, Cheryl Mujer Natl Inst Communicable Dis - República de Sudáfrica
Univ Witwatersrand - República de Sudáfrica
National Institute for Communicable Diseases - República de Sudáfrica
Wits School of Public Health - República de Sudáfrica
9 SOTOMAYOR-PROSCHLE, VIVIANA Hombre Natl Inst Communicable Dis - República de Sudáfrica
National Institute for Communicable Diseases - República de Sudáfrica
10 Lee, Vernon J. Hombre Minist Hlth - Singapur
Ministry of Health, Government of Singapore - Singapur
11 Ang, Li Wei - Minist Hlth - Singapur
Ministry of Health, Government of Singapore - Singapur
12 Monge, Susana - Inst Hlth Carlos III - España
Centro Nacional de Epidemiologia - España
13 Martinez-Pino, Isabel - Castilla & Leon Reg Minist Hlth - España
Inst Hlth Carlos III - España
Castilla y León Regional Health Ministry - España
Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública - España
14 Bangert, Mathieu - Sanofi Vaccines - Francia
15 Kramer, Rolf - Sanofi Vaccines - Francia
16 Paget, John Hombre Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos
17 Stelma, Foekje F. - Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos
18 van Summeren, Jojanneke Mujer Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos
19 Caini, Saverio Hombre Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos

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Financiamiento



Fuente
Sanofi
AstraZeneca
Università degli Studi di Firenze
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg
Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu
US CDC
Dutch Working Group for Clinical Virology
NWKV
Division of Viral Diseases
Taskforce for Global Health
Foundation for Influenza Epidemiology and Sanofi Pasteur
National Public Health Laboratory of Singapore

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.

Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
The GERi study was funded by Sanofi and AstraZeneca. Cheryl Cohen has received grant funds from US CDC and Taskforce for Global Health related to the current manuscript.
Funding: The GERi study was funded by Sanofi and AstraZeneca. Cheryl Cohen has received grant funds from US CDC and Taskforce for Global Health related to the current manuscript. The United States: We thank the Division of Viral Diseases (CDC) for sharing the NVRESS data. The Netherlands: We thank the Dutch Working Group for Clinical Virology (NWKV) for the use of virology diagnostic reports (non-sentinel data) and RIVM for providing the data. We thank the Nivel Primary Care Database team and general practitioners and their patients for their contribution to the national sentinel surveillance. The team of technicians at RIVM are thanked for organizing the logistics and performing testing of the sentinel specimens. Singapore: We thank the National Public Health Laboratory of Singapore for their involvement in data collection. Chile: We thank the staff from the National Respiratory Laboratory Network of Chile for providing timely data all year round. Spain: We thank all professionals that contribute to the respiratory virus surveillance network whose work has made this study possible and, in particular, Amparo Larrauri and Concepci\u00F3n Delgado, who led this surveillance at the time of this study. This work would not have been possible without the extensive expertise, support, and enthusiasm of Dr. John Paget, a Senior Scientist at the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel), who sadly passed away during the preparation of this manuscript. Open access publishing facilitated by Universita degli Studi di Firenze, as part of the Wiley - CRUI-CARE agreement.
The GERi study was funded by Sanofi and AstraZeneca. Cheryl Cohen has received grant funds from US CDC and Taskforce for Global Health related to the current manuscript. Funding:
M.B. and R.K. are Sanofi employees and may hold shares and/or stock options in the company. C.C. has received grant funds from US CDC and Taskforce for Global Health related to the current manuscript, and from BMGF and Sanofi Pasteur not related to the current manuscript. F.F.S., L.S., S.H., M.D., J.v.S., and S.C. report that Nivel has received RSV research grants from the Foundation for Influenza Epidemiology and Sanofi Pasteur. The remaining authors declare no competing interests.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.