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| DOI | 10.1111/IRV.70123 | ||||
| Año | 2025 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Background We previously reviewed methods for estimating the timing of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics. This study examines the impact of various estimation methods on determining the start, end, duration, and capture rate of RSV epidemics. Methods We applied eight estimation methods to RSV surveillance data from the Global Epidemiology of RSV (GERi) study, covering Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, and the United States: 3% and 10% positivity rate, moving epidemic method (MEM), mean positivity, 1.2% total detections, mean and 60% mean number, and 75% average annual percentage (AAP). We compared the median start, end, duration, and capture rate of RSV epidemics obtained from these methods. Results Within countries, the median duration of RSV epidemics varied by over 10 weeks, and the median capture rates ranged from > 95 to < 60%, depending on the estimation method. Generally, the 3% positivity rate method identified the longest RSV epidemics (earliest median start and latest end, and highest capture rate). The 10% positivity rate, MEM, and 75% AAP methods indicated the shortest RSV epidemics with the lowest capture rate. The remaining four methods produced intermediate results. Conclusions These findings underscore the importance of selecting estimation methods suited to the surveillance system and the intended use, whether for outbreak alert, planning, or targeted interventions.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Staadegaard, Lisa | Mujer |
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos |
| 2 | Del Riccio, Marco | - |
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
UNIV FLORENCE - Italia Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos Università degli Studi di Firenze - Italia |
| 3 | Heemskerk, Susanne | - |
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos |
| 4 | Duckers, Michel | Hombre |
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Univ Groningen - Países Bajos Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos Rijksuniversiteit Groningen - Países Bajos |
| 5 | Fasce, Rodrigo A. | - |
Publ Hlth Inst Chile - Chile
Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile - Chile |
| 6 | Bustos, Patricia | - |
Publ Hlth Inst Chile - Chile
Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile - Chile |
| 7 | Huang, Q. Sue | Mujer |
Inst Environm Sci & Res - Nueva Zelanda
Institute of Environmental Science and Research - Nueva Zelanda |
| 8 | Cohen, Cheryl | Mujer |
Natl Inst Communicable Dis - República de Sudáfrica
Univ Witwatersrand - República de Sudáfrica National Institute for Communicable Diseases - República de Sudáfrica Wits School of Public Health - República de Sudáfrica |
| 9 | SOTOMAYOR-PROSCHLE, VIVIANA | Hombre |
Natl Inst Communicable Dis - República de Sudáfrica
National Institute for Communicable Diseases - República de Sudáfrica |
| 10 | Lee, Vernon J. | Hombre |
Minist Hlth - Singapur
Ministry of Health, Government of Singapore - Singapur |
| 11 | Ang, Li Wei | - |
Minist Hlth - Singapur
Ministry of Health, Government of Singapore - Singapur |
| 12 | Monge, Susana | - |
Inst Hlth Carlos III - España
Centro Nacional de Epidemiologia - España |
| 13 | Martinez-Pino, Isabel | - |
Castilla & Leon Reg Minist Hlth - España
Inst Hlth Carlos III - España Castilla y León Regional Health Ministry - España Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública - España |
| 14 | Bangert, Mathieu | - |
Sanofi Vaccines - Francia
|
| 15 | Kramer, Rolf | - |
Sanofi Vaccines - Francia
|
| 16 | Paget, John | Hombre |
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos |
| 17 | Stelma, Foekje F. | - |
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos |
| 18 | van Summeren, Jojanneke | Mujer |
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos |
| 19 | Caini, Saverio | Hombre |
Netherlands Inst Hlth Serv Res NIVEL - Países Bajos
Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg - Países Bajos |
| Fuente |
|---|
| Sanofi |
| AstraZeneca |
| Università degli Studi di Firenze |
| Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| Nederlands Instituut voor Onderzoek van de Gezondheidszorg |
| Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu |
| US CDC |
| Dutch Working Group for Clinical Virology |
| NWKV |
| Division of Viral Diseases |
| Taskforce for Global Health |
| Foundation for Influenza Epidemiology and Sanofi Pasteur |
| National Public Health Laboratory of Singapore |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| The GERi study was funded by Sanofi and AstraZeneca. Cheryl Cohen has received grant funds from US CDC and Taskforce for Global Health related to the current manuscript. |
| Funding: The GERi study was funded by Sanofi and AstraZeneca. Cheryl Cohen has received grant funds from US CDC and Taskforce for Global Health related to the current manuscript. The United States: We thank the Division of Viral Diseases (CDC) for sharing the NVRESS data. The Netherlands: We thank the Dutch Working Group for Clinical Virology (NWKV) for the use of virology diagnostic reports (non-sentinel data) and RIVM for providing the data. We thank the Nivel Primary Care Database team and general practitioners and their patients for their contribution to the national sentinel surveillance. The team of technicians at RIVM are thanked for organizing the logistics and performing testing of the sentinel specimens. Singapore: We thank the National Public Health Laboratory of Singapore for their involvement in data collection. Chile: We thank the staff from the National Respiratory Laboratory Network of Chile for providing timely data all year round. Spain: We thank all professionals that contribute to the respiratory virus surveillance network whose work has made this study possible and, in particular, Amparo Larrauri and Concepci\u00F3n Delgado, who led this surveillance at the time of this study. This work would not have been possible without the extensive expertise, support, and enthusiasm of Dr. John Paget, a Senior Scientist at the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel), who sadly passed away during the preparation of this manuscript. Open access publishing facilitated by Universita degli Studi di Firenze, as part of the Wiley - CRUI-CARE agreement. |
| The GERi study was funded by Sanofi and AstraZeneca. Cheryl Cohen has received grant funds from US CDC and Taskforce for Global Health related to the current manuscript. Funding: |
| M.B. and R.K. are Sanofi employees and may hold shares and/or stock options in the company. C.C. has received grant funds from US CDC and Taskforce for Global Health related to the current manuscript, and from BMGF and Sanofi Pasteur not related to the current manuscript. F.F.S., L.S., S.H., M.D., J.v.S., and S.C. report that Nivel has received RSV research grants from the Foundation for Influenza Epidemiology and Sanofi Pasteur. The remaining authors declare no competing interests. |