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Assessing the Effect of Glacier Runoff Changes on Basin Runoff and Agricultural Production in the Indus, Amu Darya, and Tarim Interior Basins
Indexado
WoS WOS:001478732200001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:105004206316
DOI 10.1029/2024EF005064
Año 2025
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Climate change is leading to a substantial reduction in glacier mass, and it is anticipated that during this century, the peak water contribution of glaciers to runoff will occur in major glacierized basins around the world. Glacier runoff is a crucial source of water in mountain basins, and a decrease in its contribution can affect agricultural production. In this study, we modeled the agricultural sector's response to changes in glacier runoff in the Asian basins of Amu Darya, Tarim Interior, and Indus, using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was driven by surface runoff derived from the Xanthos hydrological model and the Open Global Glacier Model. Our findings indicate that under SSP5-8.5, there is an increase in accessible water during the Peak-Water Glacier Runoff compared to the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario. However, accessible water under SSP58.5 falls below the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario in the last decades of the 21st century. The initial increase in accessible water drives the GCAM agricultural model to increase the production of oil crops, root tubers, sugar crops, and fruits, but only temporarily until peak glacier runoff occurrence. In Pakistan, we observe the adaptive response of neighboring basins (increased production) to a reduction in crop production in the Amu Darya and Indus and vice versa. Our results support the argument that policymakers should implement a holistic long-term perspective, in which the apparent positive economic effect of the temporary increase in accessible water is balanced with the threat to intergenerational access to freshwater and ecosystem conservation.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Earths Future 2328-4277

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Calvo-Gallardo, R. - Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
Universidad de Chile - Chile
2 Lambert, Fabrice Hombre Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
Universidad de Chile - Chile
3 Alamos, N. - Universidad de Chile - Chile
Universidad Austral de Chile - Chile
4 Urquiza, Anahi Mujer Universidad de Chile - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
National Agency of Research and Development
National Agency of Research and Development of Chile
ANID‐PFCHA
Center for Climate and Resilience Research-CR2 (FONDAP)

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
Ruben Calvo-Gallardo acknowledged the National Agency of Research and Development of Chile, National Ph.D funding by the Scholarship Program no. 21200800 (ANID-PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2020-21200800). The authors acknowledge support from project ANID/FONDECYT/1231682. The authors also acknowledge the support of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research-CR2 (FONDAP no. 1523A0002, National Agency of Research and Development of Chile).
Rub\u00E9n Calvo-Gallardo acknowledged the National Agency of Research and Development of Chile, National Ph.D funding by the Scholarship Program no. 21200800 (ANID-PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2020\u201321200800). The authors acknowledge support from project ANID/FONDECYT/1231682. The authors also acknowledge the support of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research\u2014CR2 (FONDAP no. 1523A0002, National Agency of Research and Development of Chile).
Rub\u00E9n Calvo\u2010Gallardo acknowledged the National Agency of Research and Development of Chile, National Ph.D funding by the Scholarship Program no. 21200800 (ANID\u2010PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2020\u201321200800). The authors acknowledge support from project ANID/FONDECYT/1231682. The authors also acknowledge the support of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research\u2014CR2 (FONDAP no. 1523A0002, National Agency of Research and Development of Chile).

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