Muestra métricas de impacto externas asociadas a la publicación. Para mayor detalle:
| Indexado |
|
||||
| DOI | 10.1029/2024EF005064 | ||||
| Año | 2025 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Climate change is leading to a substantial reduction in glacier mass, and it is anticipated that during this century, the peak water contribution of glaciers to runoff will occur in major glacierized basins around the world. Glacier runoff is a crucial source of water in mountain basins, and a decrease in its contribution can affect agricultural production. In this study, we modeled the agricultural sector's response to changes in glacier runoff in the Asian basins of Amu Darya, Tarim Interior, and Indus, using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was driven by surface runoff derived from the Xanthos hydrological model and the Open Global Glacier Model. Our findings indicate that under SSP5-8.5, there is an increase in accessible water during the Peak-Water Glacier Runoff compared to the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario. However, accessible water under SSP58.5 falls below the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario in the last decades of the 21st century. The initial increase in accessible water drives the GCAM agricultural model to increase the production of oil crops, root tubers, sugar crops, and fruits, but only temporarily until peak glacier runoff occurrence. In Pakistan, we observe the adaptive response of neighboring basins (increased production) to a reduction in crop production in the Amu Darya and Indus and vice versa. Our results support the argument that policymakers should implement a holistic long-term perspective, in which the apparent positive economic effect of the temporary increase in accessible water is balanced with the threat to intergenerational access to freshwater and ecosystem conservation.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvo-Gallardo, R. | - |
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
Universidad de Chile - Chile |
| 2 | Lambert, Fabrice | Hombre |
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
Universidad de Chile - Chile |
| 3 | Alamos, N. | - |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
Universidad Austral de Chile - Chile |
| 4 | Urquiza, Anahi | Mujer |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
|
| Fuente |
|---|
| National Agency of Research and Development |
| National Agency of Research and Development of Chile |
| ANID‐PFCHA |
| Center for Climate and Resilience Research-CR2 (FONDAP) |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| Ruben Calvo-Gallardo acknowledged the National Agency of Research and Development of Chile, National Ph.D funding by the Scholarship Program no. 21200800 (ANID-PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2020-21200800). The authors acknowledge support from project ANID/FONDECYT/1231682. The authors also acknowledge the support of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research-CR2 (FONDAP no. 1523A0002, National Agency of Research and Development of Chile). |
| Rub\u00E9n Calvo-Gallardo acknowledged the National Agency of Research and Development of Chile, National Ph.D funding by the Scholarship Program no. 21200800 (ANID-PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2020\u201321200800). The authors acknowledge support from project ANID/FONDECYT/1231682. The authors also acknowledge the support of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research\u2014CR2 (FONDAP no. 1523A0002, National Agency of Research and Development of Chile). |
| Rub\u00E9n Calvo\u2010Gallardo acknowledged the National Agency of Research and Development of Chile, National Ph.D funding by the Scholarship Program no. 21200800 (ANID\u2010PFCHA/Doctorado Nacional/2020\u201321200800). The authors acknowledge support from project ANID/FONDECYT/1231682. The authors also acknowledge the support of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research\u2014CR2 (FONDAP no. 1523A0002, National Agency of Research and Development of Chile). |