Muestra métricas de impacto externas asociadas a la publicación. Para mayor detalle:
| Indexado |
|
||||
| DOI | 10.1016/J.ESWA.2025.127932 | ||||
| Año | 2025 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Power systems' reliable and cost-effective operation depends on the performance of short-term load forecasting models. Probabilistic Load Forecasting (PLF) quantifies the uncertainty of future load, facilitating the derivation of scenario trajectories. This capability aids operators' risk management and decision-making concerning energy supply, load balancing, reserve and ramping scheduling, and other grid management activities. However, traditional PLF models often face challenges stemming from asymmetry, multi-modality, heavy tails, and non-negativity in load series. To address this issue, we propose an innovative approach by incorporating PLF-tailored kernel functions into Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) through two distinct methods: (i) the introduction of the versatile four-parameter Sinh-Arcsinh distribution to enhance MDN flexibility and (ii) the strategic left-truncation of kernel functions at zero, effectively integrating prior knowledge about load series characteristics. Expanding the utility of MDNs, the study also delves into multi-step load scenario generation, pushing the boundaries of their application. Rigorous assessment against both traditional and state-of-the-art benchmarks highlights the superior performance of the proposed methods across diverse load classes. Notably, the synergy between using Sinh-Arcsinh and truncated distributions in an MDN emerges as the standout performer for both PLF and scenario generation.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ochoa, Tomas | - |
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
Imperial Coll London - Reino Unido |
| 2 | Serpell, Cristian | - |
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
|
| 3 | Valle, Carlos | - |
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso - Chile
|
| 4 | Gil, Esteban | - |
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
|
| Fuente |
|---|
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico |
| Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María |
| Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council |
| Leverhulme Trust |
| UTFSM through PIIC |
| ANID |
| Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo |
| Leverhulme International Professorship |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| Funding: This work was supported in part by ANID through doctoral scholarship 21170109, Basal project AFB240002, FONDECYT 1231892, FONDECYT 11230351, and UTFSM through PIIC grant 032/2021. Additionally, this work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant number EP/Y025946/1 and by the Leverhulme International Professorship grant reference LIP-2020-002. |
| Funding: This work was supported in part by ANID through doctoral scholarship 21170109, Basal project AFB240002, FONDECYT 1231892, FONDECYT 11230351, and UTFSM through PIIC grant 032/2021. Additionally, this work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant number EP/Y025946/1 and by the Leverhulme International Professorship grant reference LIP-2020-002. |