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Chilean Mediterranean forest on the verge of collapse? Evidence from a comprehensive risk analysis
Indexado
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85215206899
DOI 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2025.178557
Año 2025
Tipo

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



World forests are experiencing significant modification due to the confluence of climate change and deforestation, with Mediterranean forests facing particularly acute threats. The Chilean Sclerophyllous Mediterranean Forest is considered a world biodiversity hotspot, a restricted ecosystem type that is highly affected by global change drivers. Despite the high ecological and environmental importance of this ecosystem, an integrated assessment of its risk derived from climate and land-use change is lacking. This study estimates the level of risk of all sclerophyll forest stands in Chile, by assessing their exposure to several factors linked with climate change, land cover change, wildfires, change in the vegetation functional properties, and habitat fragmentation. We also generated a spatially explicit estimate of the main factors underlying the risk of each sclerophyllous forest stand. We constructed a multifactorial risk index based on the different analyzed variables, exploring the main drivers associated with the risk of each forest stand using principal components analysis with agglomerative hierarchical clustering. We found that 39.8 % of sclerophyll forest stands reached a high or very high-risk index, with the highest levels concentrated between 32°S and 34°S. The vigor and net primary production of sclerophyll forest stands decreased in 90.9 % and 86.6 %, respectively. We identified three groups of forest stands: A) northern group (29.9°S to 33.5°S), which has experienced high decrease of net primary production and vegetation vigor; B) central group (32°S to 35°S), also affected by degradation and replacement by croplands; and C) southern group (34°S to 39°S), affected by drought and exotic forest plantations. The results of this study provided clarity on the current state of the sclerophyll forest, allowing for the identification of spatial differences in the risk and their underlying factors. Our results and data can be useful for informing policy and supporting sustainable management of government agencies and practitioners.

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Environmental Sciences
Scopus
Waste Management And Disposal
Pollution
Environmental Engineering
Environmental Chemistry
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Cueto, Diego A. - Universidad de Chile - Chile
Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
2 Alaniz, Alberto J. - Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
3 Hidalgo-Corrotea, Claudia - Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
4 Vergara, Pablo M. - Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
5 Carvajal, Mario A. - Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
6 Barrios-Saravia, Alexis - Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico
Universidad de Santiago de Chile
Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo
Desarrollo e Innovacion

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
This research was fund by FONDECYT 3240117 Postdoctorado from ANID, Chile. Support to this study was also provided by Proyecto DICYT Ayudante, C\u00F3digo 092479VE_Ayudante, Vicerrector\u00EDa de Investigaci\u00F3n, Desarrollo e Innovaci\u00F3n, Universidad de Santiago de Chile.

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