Muestra métricas de impacto externas asociadas a la publicación. Para mayor detalle:
| Indexado |
|
||||
| DOI | 10.3390/W10020145 | ||||
| Año | 2018 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Stochastic weather simulation, or weather generators (WGs), have gained a wide acceptance and been used for a variety of purposes, including climate change studies and the evaluation of climate variability and uncertainty effects. The two major challenges in WGs are improving the estimation of interannual variability and reducing overdispersion in the synthetic series of simulated weather. The objective of this work is to develop a WG model of daily rainfall, incorporating a covariable that accounts for interannual variability, and apply it in three climate regions (arid, Mediterranean, and temperate) of Chile. Precipitation occurrence was modeled using a two-stage, first-order Markov chain, whose parameters are fitted with a generalized lineal model (GLM) using a logistic function. This function considers monthly values of the observed Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Region 3.4 of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO index) as a covariable. Precipitation intensity was simulated with a mixed exponential distribution, fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. The stochastic simulation shows that the application of the approach to Mediterranean and arid climates largely eliminates the overdispersion problem, resulting in a much improved interannual variability in the simulated values.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Urdiales, Diego | Hombre |
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
Univ Cuenca - Ecuador University of Cuenca - Ecuador |
| 2 | MEZA-DABANCENS, FRANCISCO JAVIER | Hombre |
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
Aquasec IAI Ctr Excellence Water Secur - Chile Aquasec IAI Center of Excellence for Water Security - Chile IAI Center of Excellence for Water Security - Chile |
| 3 | GIRONAS-LEON, JORGE ALFREDO | Hombre |
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable CEDEUS - Chile Centro Nacional de Investigacion para la Gestion Integrada de Desastres Naturales - Chile Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile |
| 4 | Gilabert, Horacio | Hombre |
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
|
| Fuente |
|---|
| National Science Foundation |
| CONICYT/FONDAP |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico |
| US National Science Foundation |
| Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo CientÃfico y Tecnológico |
| International Association for Identification |
| Directorate for Geosciences |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| Acknowledgments: The research was carried out with the aid of a grant from the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) CRN3056 supported by the US National Science Foundation (Grant GEO-1128040). Funding from Fondecyt grant 1170429 and CONICYT/FONDAP 15110017 and 15110020 are also acknowledged. The authors are grateful to the two anonymous reviewers whose detailed comments contributed greatly to the improvement of this paper. |