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Early detection of sea lice epidemic transitions and changes in long-term abundance levels in salmon farming areas
Indexado
WoS WOS:001447998300001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:86000580499
DOI 10.1016/J.AQUACULTURE.2025.742385
Año 2025
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Early warning indicators (EWIs) have been applied within the framework of dynamical systems theory to detect in advance tipping points in stressed or perturbed ecosystems, including the early detection of disease outbreaks. Early warning signals in epidemiology occur when an epidemic transition point is approached, marking the transition in the state of an epidemic. Here, EWIs were used to detect large outbreaks of sea lice (Caligus rogercresseyi) in advance using time series of total adult abundance from a highly infested salmon farming area in southern Chile. Generic early warning indicators successfully detected increases in C. rogercresseyi abundance several months in advance of two major transition points marked by: i) El Nino 2016, ii) abnormal climatic/ oceanographic conditions during the spring-summer of 2019-2020. The emergence of a trend in EWIs was interpreted as an early response of C. rogercresseyi to oceanographic disturbances. New signatures, characterized by a marked loss of long-term memory and predictability, and an increase in randomness in sea lice abundance time series were detected using the Hurst coefficient (H) and the weighted permutation entropy (WPE). An opposite pattern of variability between H and WPE was observed; and a segmented regression identified major breakpoints in the overall sea lice abundance dynamics as H decreased. Because H and WPE track the long-term dynamics of sea lice abundance well, we proposed them as complementary indicators to aid in the management and control of increasing sea lice epidemic outburst, as they appear to track the developed resistance of sea lice to anti-lice chemicals.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Aquaculture 0044-8486

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Fisheries
Marine & Freshwater Biology
Scopus
Aquatic Science
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Montes, Rodrigo M. - Universidad de Concepción - Chile
2 Quinones, Renato A. - Universidad de Concepción - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
FONDECYT
SERNAPESCA
Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico
Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research
National Fisheries and Aquaculture Service
Agenția Națională pentru Cercetare și Dezvoltare
Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research, INCAR (FONDAP-ANID)

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
This research was funded by the Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research, INCAR (FONDAP-ANID Grants 15110027, 1522A0004, 1523A0007; and by the FONDECYT 2017 Postdoctoral Grant No. 3170529 awarded to R. Montes. The authors thank the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Service (SERNAPESCA) for providing the data for this study and to two anonymous reviewers whose suggestions greatly improved the manuscript.
This research was funded by the Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research , INCAR (FONDAP-ANID Grants 15110027 , 1522A0004 ; and 1523A0007) and by the FONDECYT 2017 Postdoctoral Grant No. 3170529 awarded to R. Montes. The authors thank the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Service (SERNAPESCA) for providing the data for this study and to two anonymous reviewers whose suggestions greatly improved the manuscript.
This research was funded by the Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research , INCAR (FONDAP-ANID Grants 15110027 , 1522A0004 ; and 1523A0007) and by the FONDECYT 2017 Postdoctoral Grant No. 3170529 awarded to R. Montes. The authors thank the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Service (SERNAPESCA) for providing the data for this study and to two anonymous reviewers whose suggestions greatly improved the manuscript.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.