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Self-organization of the stock exchange to the edge of a phase transition: empirical and theoretical studies
Indexado
WoS WOS:001412618400001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85216780436
DOI 10.3389/FPHY.2024.1508465
Año 2025
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Our study is based on the hypothesis that stock exchanges, being nonlinear, open and dissipative systems, are capable of self-organization to the edge of a phase transition. To empirically support the hypothesis, we find segments in hourly stock volume series for 3,000 stocks of publicly traded companies, corresponding to the time of stock exchange's stay to the edge of a phase transition. We provide a theoretical justification of the hypothesis and present a phenomenological model of stock exchange self-organization to the edge of the first-order phase transition and to the edge of the second-order phase transition. In the model, the controlling parameter is entropy as a measure of uncertainty of information about a share of a public company, guided by which stock exchange players make a decision to buy/sell it. The order parameter is determined by the number of buy/sell transactions by stock exchange players of a public company's shares, i.e., stock's volume. By applying statistical tests and the AUC metric, we found the most effective early warning measures from the set of investigated critical deceleration measures, multifractal measures and reconstructed phase space measures. The practical significance of our study is determined by the possibility of early warning of self-organization of stock exchanges to the edge of a phase transition and can be extended with high frequency data in the future research.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Frontiers In Physics 2296-424X

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Dmitriev, Andrey Hombre HSE Univ - Rusia
Universidad Bernardo O'Higgins - Chile
HSE University - Rusia
2 Lebedev, Andrey - HSE Univ - Rusia
HSE University - Rusia
3 Kornilov, Vasily - HSE Univ - Rusia
HSE University - Rusia
4 Dmitriev, Victor Hombre HSE Univ - Rusia
HSE University - Rusia

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Financiamiento



Fuente
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University)

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
The author(s) declare that financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The work is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University).
The author(s) declare that financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. The work is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University).

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.