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Sensitivity and covariance in stochastic complementarity problems with an application to North American natural gas markets
Indexado
WoS WOS:000428097400003
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85035191912
DOI 10.1016/J.EJOR.2017.11.003
Año 2018
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



We provide an efficient method to approximate the covariance between decision variables and uncertain parameters in solutions to a general class of stochastic nonlinear complementarity problems. We also develop a sensitivity metric to quantify uncertainty propagation by determining the change in the variance of the output due to a change in the variance of an input parameter. The covariance matrix of the solution variables quantifies the uncertainty in the output and pairs correlated variables and parameters. The sensitivity metric helps in identifying the parameters that cause maximum fluctuations in the output. The method developed in this paper optimizes the use of gradients and matrix multiplications which makes it particularly useful for large-scale problems. Having developed this method, we extend the deterministic version of the North American Natural Gas Model (NANGAM), to incorporate effects due to uncertainty in the parameters of the demand function, supply function, infrastructure costs, and investment costs. We then use the sensitivity metrics to identify the parameters that impact the equilibrium the most. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Operations Research & Management Science
Scopus
Computer Science (All)
Management Science And Operations Research
Modeling And Simulation
Information Systems And Management
SciELO
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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Sankaranarayanan, Sriram - Johns Hopkins Univ - Estados Unidos
Johns Hopkins University - Estados Unidos
2 F, Feijoo Hombre Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso - Chile
3 Siddiqui, Sauleh - Johns Hopkins Univ - Estados Unidos
German Inst Econ Res DIW Berlin - Estados Unidos
Johns Hopkins University - Estados Unidos
German Institute for Economic Research - Alemania

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Origen de Citas Identificadas



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Citas identificadas: Las citas provienen de documentos incluidos en la base de datos de DATACIENCIA

Citas Identificadas: 9.09 %
Citas No-identificadas: 90.91 %

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Citas identificadas: Las citas provienen de documentos incluidos en la base de datos de DATACIENCIA

Citas Identificadas: 9.09 %
Citas No-identificadas: 90.91 %

Financiamiento



Fuente
National Science Foundation
NSF

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
The model in this article is based in part on the multi-fuel energy equilibrium model MultiMod. The MultiMod was developed by Dr. Daniel Huppmann at DIW Berlin as part of the RESOURCES project, in collaboration with Dr. Ruud Egging (NTNU, Trondheim), Dr. Franziska Holz (DIW Berlin) and others (see http://diw.de/multimod). We are grateful to the original developers of MultiMod for sharing the mathematical implementation, which we further extended as part of this work. This research was funded in part by NSF Grant #1745375 [EAGER: SSDIM: Generating Synthetic Data on Interdependent Food, Energy, and Transportation Networks via Stochastic, Bi-level Optimization]. The authors would also like to thank Dr. Donniell Fishkind, Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University, Dr. Michael Ferris, Department of Computer Sciences, University of Wisconsin Madison and the participants of TAI conference 2016, MOPTA 2016 and INFORMS 2016 for their valuable comments and discussions. The authors would also like to thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions improved this paper.
The model in this article is based in part on the multi-fuel energy equilibrium model MultiMod. The MultiMod was developed by Dr. Daniel Huppmann at DIW Berlin as part of the RESOURCES project, in collaboration with Dr. Ruud Egging (NTNU, Trondheim), Dr. Franziska Holz (DIW Berlin) and others (see http://diw.de/multimod ). We are grateful to the original developers of MultiMod for sharing the mathematical implementation, which we further extended as part of this work. This research was funded in part by NSF Grant #1745375 [ EAGER: SSDIM: Generating Synthetic Data on Interdependent Food, Energy, and Transportation Networks via Stochastic, Bi-level Optimization]. The authors would also like to thank Dr. Donniell Fishkind, Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University, Dr. Michael Ferris, Department of Computer Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison and the participants of TAI conference 2016, MOPTA 2016 and INFORMS 2016 for their valuable comments and discussions. The authors would also like to thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions improved this paper.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.