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Characterizing the spatial correlation of coseismic slip distributions: a data driven Bayesian approach
Indexado
WoS WOS:001377091400001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:86000171684
DOI 10.1093/GJI/GGAE406
Año 2024
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



The spatial correlation of coseismic slip is a necessary input for generating stochastic seismic rupture models, which are commonly used in seismic and tsunami hazard assessments. To date, the spatial correlation of individual earthquakes is characterized using finite fault models by finding the combination of parameters of a von K & aacute;rm & aacute;n autocorrelation function that best fits the observed autocorrelation function of the finite fault model. However, because a priori spatial correlation conditions (i.e. not in the data) are generally applied in finite fault model generation, the results obtained using this method may be biased. Additionally, robust uncertainty estimates for spatial correlations of coseismic slip are generally not performed. Considering these limitations in the classic method, here, a method is developed based on a Bayesian formulation of Finite Fault Inversion (FFI) with positivity constraints. This method allows for characterizing the spatial correlation of coseismic slip and its uncertainties for an earthquake by using samples of coseismic slip from a posterior probability density function (PDF). Furthermore, a Bayesian model selection criterion called Akaike Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) is applied to objectively choose between different prior spatial correlation schemes before computing the posterior, to reduce subjectivity due to this prior condition. The ABIC is calculated using an approximate analytical expression of Bayesian evidence. The method is applied to simulated P waves, demonstrating that model selection allows for objectively estimating the most suitable prior spatial correlation scheme in FFI. Additionally, the target spatial correlation of coseismic slip is accurately recovered using samples from the posterior PDF, as well as their uncertainties. Moreover, in the simulated experiment, it is shown that a non-robust choice of the prior spatial correlation scheme can significantly bias the estimated spatial correlations of coseismic slip. We apply our method to observed P waves from the 2015, Illapel earthquake ($M_{\rm w} = 8.3$), finding that the spatial correlation of coseismic slip of this earthquake is better described by a von K & aacute;rm & aacute;n ACF, with mean correlation lengths of around 47 km and Hurst parameter of 0.58. We conclude that using our method reduces biases associated with prior spatial correlation conditions and allows for robust estimation of spatial correlations of coseismic slip and their uncertainties.

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Marchant-Caceres, G. - Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción - Chile
Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile
2 Benavente, R. - Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción - Chile
Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile
3 Becerra-Carreño, - Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
4 Crempien, J. G. F. - Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
5 Morales-Yanez, C. - Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción - Chile
Universidad de Concepción - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico
Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN)
National Agency for Research and Development (ANID)
Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres
Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo
ANID/FONDECYT
Anillo precursor project
National PhD scholarship ANID-Subdireccion de Capital Humano/Doctorado Nacional
Proyectos Ingenieria

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.

Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
This research was supported by Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN) ANID/FONDAP/1523A0009, Anillo precursor project ANID/PIA/ACT192169 and Proyectos Ingenieria 2030 (ING222010004). CM-Y acknowledges funding from ANID/FONDECYT 3220307. VB-C acknowledges support from the national PhD scholarship ANID-Subdireccion de Capital Humano/Doctorado Nacional/2022-21221938. JC acknowledges the support of the EASER (Evolution Assessment of Seismic Risk) project under grant number ACT240044 from the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID). The waveform data used in this work was acquired from the Iris Data Management Center. These data were downloaded and processed using the Obspy software. Calculations were performed using Python libraries, Numpy and Scipy. Figures were generated using Matplotlib and Cartopy. Green's functions were computed using the FOMOSTO/Pyrocko Framework (Heimann et al. 2019). We thank the editor, Dr Eiichi Fukuyama, Dr Jan Dettmer and one anonymous reviewer for their thorough review and input, which greatly improved this paper.
This research was supported by Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN) ANID/FONDAP/1523A0009, Anillo precursor project ANID/PIA/ACT192169 and Proyectos Ingenier\u00EDa 2030 (ING222010004). CM-Y acknowledges funding from ANID/FONDECYT 3220307. VB-C acknowledges support from the national PhD scholarship ANID-Subdirecci\u00F3n de Capital Humano/Doctorado Nacional/2022\u201321221938. JC acknowledges the support of the EASER (Evolution Assessment of Seismic Risk) project under grant number ACT240044 from the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID). The waveform data used in this work was acquired from the Iris Data Management Center. These data were downloaded and processed using the Obspy software. Calculations were performed using Python libraries, Numpy and Scipy. Figures were generated using Matplotlib and Cartopy. Green\u2019s functions were computed using the FOMOSTO/Pyrocko Framework (Heimann et al. ). We thank the editor, Dr Eiichi Fukuyama, Dr Jan Dettmer and one anonymous reviewer for their thorough review and input, which greatly improved this paper.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.