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Modeling and scenario building for climate change adaptation planning: The case of large mining in Chile
Indexado
WoS WOS:001332831200001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85205696748
DOI 10.1016/J.ENVDEV.2024.101089
Año 2024
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



The mining sector in Chile is a strategic industrial sector for the country. Existing evidence shows that it faces several serious climate change threats; precipitation and flooding, droughts, heatwaves, among others. This scene put pressure on the government and the industry to develop efficient adaptation plans. To date, adaptation plans are designed under the rather linear paradigm of predict-then-act or the impact-lea approach as they are characterized in the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Literature and the IPCC reports have identified the limits of those planning paradigms showing the relevance of adaptation barriers or enabling conditions, which should be considered as intrinsic part of the planning problem. In methodological terms, planning for climate change risks implies an enriched adaptation plan problem, previously characterized only by an operative climate risk management, that must be described at the beginning of the decision-making process. In this study, our objective is to contribute to the climate change adaptation planning of large-scale mining in Chile. The study is based on a climate change adaptation planning approach that overcomes the limitations of the current paradigm. In doing so, we start from the understanding that what emerges as an object of analysis from adding to the climate risks their enabling managing conditions is a social system. The social system whose function is that social climate risk management takes place. Therefore, we call it the Social Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change (SMSACC). As such the SMSACC should be the adaptation planning key object. In the first place we modeled that system applying a qualitative system methodology and then we developed it into a mathematical model based on graph theory, in particular the signed digraphs. This allows us to simulate two types of intervention on the enlarged object of analysis of the large mining adaptation plan. On the one hand, we carried out a future scenario analysis based on prospective tools which enables us to understand the system's answer to different future behavior of its environment, including climate change. On the other hand, we simulate different strategic interventions options on the system, which facilitates understanding the system's reaction under different public policy approaches. The modeling and simulation results provided an insightful understanding of the dilemma of social adaptation management of large mining in Chile, and as such they are useful input for the planning process.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Environmental Development 2211-4645

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Environmental Sciences
Scopus
Management, Monitoring, Policy And Law
Geography, Planning And Development
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Jiliberto Herrera, Rodrigo Hombre Universidad de Chile - Chile
1 Herrera, Rodrigo Jiliberto - Universidad de Chile - Chile
2 RAMOS-JILIBERTO, RODRIGO Hombre Universidad Mayor - Chile
3 Dintrans, Emilio Castillo - Universidad de Chile - Chile
4 Caro, Angel Allendes - Universidad de Chile - Chile
5 Orellana, L. F. Hombre Universidad de Chile - Chile
Centro Avanzado de Tecnologia para la Mineria - Chile
6 Billi, Marco Hombre Universidad de Chile - Chile
Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia (CR)2 - Chile
Ctr Climate & Resilience Res CR2 - Chile
7 Valenzuela, Marcelo Ramírez - Universidad de Chile - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)
Fondo de Financiamiento de Centros de Investigación en Áreas Prioritarias
Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC)
Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia
Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo
Chilean National Research Agency
Centro Avanzado de Tecnología para la Minería
Solar Energy Center

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
This work was supported by the Chilean National Research Agency [ANID/Fondef ID20I10147. Herramientas para la Construccion de Escenarios Prospectivos de Gestio <acute accent> n del Riesgo Clima <acute accent> tico y Desarrollo de Estrategias de Adaptacion: el Caso del Sector Minero) . R.R-J received support from grant ANID/FONDECYT 1231321. LFO gratefully acknowledged the financial support from the basal project AFB220002 of the Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC) , the ANID/FONDAP/1522A0006 of the Solar Energy Center (SERC) . MB acknowledges the financial support from the ANID/FONDAP 1511009, Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR) 2.
This work was supported by the Chilean National Research Agency [ANID/Fondef ID20I10147. Herramientas para la Construcci\u00F3n de Escenarios Prospectivos de Gesti\u00F3n del Riesgo Clim\u00E1tico y Desarrollo de Estrategias de Adaptaci\u00F3n: el Caso del Sector Minero). R.R-J received support from grant ANID/FONDECYT 1231321.LFO gratefully acknowledged the financial support from the basal project AFB220002 of the Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), the ANID/FONDAP/1522A0006 of the Solar Energy Center (SERC). MB acknowledges the financial support from the ANID/FONDAP 1511009, Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2.

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