Introduction: It is known that cognitive deficits are a core feature of schizophrenia and that in the general population, prior beliefs significantly influence learning and reasoning processes. However, the interaction of prior beliefs with cognitive deficits and their impact on performance in schizophrenia patients is still poorly understood. This study investigates the role of beliefs and cognitive variables (CVs) like working memory, associative learning, and processing speed on learning processes in individuals with schizophrenia. We hypothesize that beliefs will influence the ability to learn correct predictions and that first-episode schizophrenia patients (FEP) will show impaired learning due to cognitive deficits. Methods: We used a predictive-learning task to examine how FEP ( n = 23) and matched controls (n = 23) adjusted their decisional criteria concerning physical properties during the learning process when predicting the sinking behavior of two transparent containers filled with aluminum discs when placed in water. Results: On accuracy, initial differences by group, trial type, and interaction effects of these variables disappeared when CVs were controlled. The differences by conditions, associated with differential beliefs about why the objects sink slower or faster, were seen in patients and controls, despite controlling the CVs' effect. Conclusions: Differences between groups were mainly explained by CVs, proving that they play an important role than what is assumed in this type of task. However, beliefs about physical events were not affected by CVs, and beliefs affect in the same way the decisional criteria of the control or FEP patients' groups.