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| DOI | 10.1002/ECE3.10901 | ||||
| Año | 2024 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is of special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the coastal environment, large Laminarian algae-kelps-form key coastal ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps, Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed habitat-forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat suitability. Using species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios with a focus on the Southeast Pacific shores. To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was the single most important variable explaining the global distribution of suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at high latitudes. Along the Southeast Pacific, we observed an upper range contraction of -17.08 degrees S of latitude for 2090-2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the coast of Peru and poleward to -27.83 degrees S in Chile. Along the area of Northern Chile where a complete habitat loss is predicted by our model, natural stands are under heavy exploitation. The loss of habitat suitability will take place worldwide: Significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are likely. Furthermore, changes in habitat suitability are a harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the Southeast Pacific.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzalez-Aragon, Daniel | - |
Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción - Chile
Instituto Milenio en Socio-Ecología Costera - Chile Núcleo Milenio UPWELL - Chile Universidad Nacional Andrés Bello - Chile |
| 2 | RIVADENEIRA-VALENZUELA, MARCELO MICHAEL | Hombre |
Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas - Chile
Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile |
| 3 | Lara, Carlos | Hombre |
Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción - Chile
Universidad Bernardo O'Higgins - Chile |
| 4 | Torres, Felipe I. | Hombre |
Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción - Chile
Instituto Milenio en Socio-Ecología Costera - Chile ANID Technol Ctr DO210001 - Chile Universidad Nacional Andrés Bello - Chile Data Observatory Foundation - Chile |
| 5 | VASQUEZ-CASTRO, JULIO ALBERTO | Hombre |
Instituto Milenio en Socio-Ecología Costera - Chile
Universidad Católica del Norte - Chile Ctr Invest & Desarrollo Tecnol Algas & Otros Recur - Chile Universidad Nacional Andrés Bello - Chile Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico en Algas (CIDTA) - Chile |
| 6 | BROITMAN-ROJAS, BERNARDO OSCAR. | Hombre |
Instituto Milenio en Socio-Ecología Costera - Chile
Núcleo Milenio UPWELL - Chile Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez - Chile Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción - Chile Universidad Nacional Andrés Bello - Chile |
| Fuente |
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| FONDECYT |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico |
| Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo |
| Instituto Milenio SECOS |
| Nucleo UPWELL |
| Agradecimiento |
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| We acknowledge funding from ANID through Nucleo UPWELL (NCN19153), Instituto Milenio SECOS (ICN2019-015), ANID-CENTROS REGIONALES (CLAP, R20F0008) and FONDECYT proposals 1221699, 1221534, 1230420, 1230286. |
| We acknowledge funding from ANID through Nucleo UPWELL (NCN19153), Instituto Milenio SECOS (ICN2019‐015), ANID‐CENTROS REGIONALES (CLAP, R20F0008) and FONDECYT proposals 1221699, 1221534, 1230420, 1230286. |