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Optimal Rotation Age in Fast Growing Plantations: A Dynamical Optimization Problem
Indexado
WoS WOS:001197666900001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85189883297
DOI 10.1007/S11538-024-01262-8
Año 2024
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Forest plantations are economically and environmentally relevant, as they play a key role in timber production and carbon capture. It is expected that the future climate change scenario affects forest growth and modify the rotation age for timber production. However, mathematical models on the effect of climate change on the rotation age for timber production remain still limited. We aim to determine the optimal rotation age that maximizes the net economic benefit of timber volume in a negative scenario from the climatic point of view. For this purpose, a bioeconomic optimal control problem was formulated from a system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) governed by the state variables live biomass volume, intrinsic growth rate, and area affected by fire. Then, four control variables were associated to the system, representing forest management activities, which are felling, thinning, reforestation, and fire prevention. The existence of optimal control solutions was demonstrated, and the solutions of the optimal control problem were also characterized using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. The solutions of the model were approximated numerically by the Forward-Backward Sweep method. To validate the model, two scenarios were considered: a realistic scenario that represents current forestry activities for the exotic species Pinus radiata D. Don, and a pessimistic scenario, which considers environmental conditions conducive to a higher occurrence of forest fires. The optimal solution that maximizes the net benefit of timber volume consists of a strategy that considers all four control variables simultaneously. For felling and thinning, regardless of the scenario considered, the optimal strategy is to spend on both activities depending on the amount of biomass in the field. Similarly, for reforestation, the optimal strategy is to spend as the forest is harvested. In the case of fire prevention, in the realistic scenario, the optimal strategy consists of reducing the expenses in fire prevention because the incidence of fires is lower, whereas in the pessimistic scenario, the opposite is true. It is concluded that the optimal rotation age that maximizes the net economic benefit of timber volume in P. radiata plantations is 24 and 19 years for the realistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. This corroborates that the presence of fires influences the determination of the optimal rotation age, and as a consequence, the net economic benefit.

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Biology
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Altamirano-Fernández, Alex Hombre Universidad Católica del Maule - Chile
2 ROJAS-PALMA, ALEJANDRO MAXIMILIANO Hombre Universidad Católica del Maule - Chile
3 Espinoza-Meza, Sergio - Universidad Católica del Maule - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado at Universidad Católica del Maule

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
A. Altamirano would like to thank the Vicerrector\u00EDa de Investigaci\u00F3n y Postgrado at Universidad Cat\u00F3lica del Maule, Chile. This work is part of A. Altamirano Ph.D. thesis in the program of Doctorado en Modelamiento Matem\u00E1tico Aplicado.

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