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When intuitive Bayesians need to be good readers: The problem-wording effect on Bayesian reasoning
Indexado
WoS WOS:001179633200001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85184040278
DOI 10.1016/J.COGNITION.2024.105722
Año 2024
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Are humans intuitive Bayesians? It depends. People seem to be Bayesians when updating probabilities from experience but not when acquiring probabilities from descriptions (i.e., Bayesian textbook problems). Decades of research on textbook problems have focused on how the format of the statistical information (e.g., the natural frequency effect) affects such reasoning. However, it pays much less attention to the wording of these problems. Mathematical problem-solving literature indicates that wording is critical for performance. Wording effects (the wording varied across the problems and manipulations) can also have far-reaching consequences. These may have confounded between-format comparisons and moderated within-format variability in prior research. Therefore, across seven experiments (N = 4909), we investigated the impact of the wording of medical screening problems and statistical formats on Bayesian reasoning in a general adult population. Participants generated more Bayesian answers with natural frequencies than with single-event probabilities, but only with the improved wording. The improved wording of the natural frequencies consistently led to more Bayesian answers than the natural frequencies with standard wording. The improved wording effect occurred mainly due to a more efficient description of the statistical information—cueing required mathematical operations, an unambiguous association of numbers with their reference class and verbal simplification. The wording effect extends the current theoretical explanations of Bayesian reasoning and bears methodological and practical implications. Ultimately, even intuitive Bayesians must be good readers when solving Bayesian textbook problems.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Cognition 0010-0277

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Psychology, Experimental
Scopus
Language And Linguistics
Linguistics And Language
Developmental And Educational Psychology
Experimental And Cognitive Psychology
Cognitive Neuroscience
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Sirota, Miroslav Hombre University of Essex - Reino Unido
Univ Essex - Reino Unido
2 NAVARRETE-GARCIA, GORKA Hombre Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez - Chile
Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
3 Juanchich, Marie Mujer University of Essex - Reino Unido
Univ Essex - Reino Unido

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Financiamiento



Fuente
National Agency for Research and Development (ANID/FONDECYT)

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
Gorka Navarrete was awarded a grant from the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID/FONDECYT Regular 1211373) which did not affect the integrity of the presented research.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.