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| DOI | 10.1007/S11127-024-01143-7 | ||||
| Año | 2024 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
A political business cycle (PBC), with governments adjusting and timing economic policy for electoral gains, has long been hypothesized. A lack of data has so far limited testing of this phenomenon for government policies as opposed to fiscal outcomes such as tax revenue or government deficit, especially at the national level. We use new monthly data on tax reform announcements for a set of 22 democracies, 1988-2014, to test the PBC hypothesis for taxation. In addition to the traditional electoral strategy formulation of the PBC, we also put forward and test a capacity version of the PBC. We find evidence for the capacity version but not the traditional version of the PBC: tax reforms are less likely to be announced before elections and more likely after elections, independently of whether they are increases or decreases. Our evidence suggests that while a PBC exists, it may be less driven by strategic electioneering and more innocuous than previously assumed.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flores, Lucia Rossel | - |
Universidad del Desarrollo - Chile
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| 1 | Rossel Flores, Lucia | - |
Universidad del Desarrollo - Chile
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| 2 | Huysmans, Martijn | - |
Univ Utrecht - Países Bajos
Utrecht University School of Economics - Países Bajos |
| 3 | Ferwerda, Joras | - |
Univ Utrecht - Países Bajos
Utrecht University School of Economics - Países Bajos |
| Agradecimiento |
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| We would like to thank Brigitte Unger, Bob Rijkers, and anonymous reviewers and the editor for comments on earlier versions. The paper has also benefited from comments at the USE internal seminar series, and from Dr. Juan Pablo Couyoumdjian and others at the internal seminar at the School of Government at Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago Chile. Most of the research was completed while Lucia Rossel Flores was a doctoral candidate at Utrecht University. |