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Holistic rockfall risk assessment in high mountain areas affected by seismic activity: Application to the Uspallata valley, Central Andes, Chile
Indexado
WoS WOS:001100948200001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85176792516
DOI 10.1111/RISA.14239
Año 2023
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Over large regions exposed to natural disasters, cascading effects resulting from complex or concatenated natural processes may represent a large portion of total risk. Populated high-mountain environments are a major concern, and methods for large-scale quantitative risk analyses are urgently required to improve risk mitigation. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative rockfall risk assessment over a large archetypal valley of the Andean mountains, in Central Chile, which integrates a wide spectrum of elements at risk. Risk is expressed as an expected damage both in monetary terms and casualties, at different scales relevant for decision making. Notably, total rockfall risk is divided into its main drivers, which allows quantifying seismically induced rockfall risk. For this purpose, the local seismic hazard is quantified and the yield acceleration, that is, acceleration required to initiate rockfall, is determined at the regional scale. The probability of failure is thereafter derived in terms of annual frequency of rockfall initiation and integrated in the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) process. Our results show the significant role of seismic activity as the triggering mechanism of rockfalls, and highlight elements at risk that have a major contribution to the total risk. Eventually a sensitivity analysis is conducted to (i) assess the robustness of obtained risk estimates to the data and modeling choices and (ii) identify the most influential assumptions. Our approach evidences the feasibility of large-scale QRAs in sensitive environments and opens perspectives for refining QRAs in similar territories significantly affected by cascading effects and multihazards.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Risk Analysis 0272-4332

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Farvacque, Manon - Université de Genève - Suiza
Universite Grenoble Alpes - Francia
Univ Geneva - Suiza
Univ Grenoble Alpes - Francia
2 Eckert, Nicolas Hombre Universite Grenoble Alpes - Francia
Univ Grenoble Alpes - Francia
3 Candia, G. Hombre Universidad del Desarrollo - Chile
ANID/FONDAP/15110017 - Chile
Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile
4 Bourrier, Franck Hombre Universite Grenoble Alpes - Francia
Univ Grenoble Alpes - Francia
5 Corona, Christophe - Université de Genève - Suiza
Laboratoire de Géographie Physique et Environnementale, Clermont-Ferrand - Francia
Univ Geneva - Suiza
Univ Clermont Auvergne - Francia
6 Toe, David - Universite Grenoble Alpes - Francia
Univ Grenoble Alpes - Francia

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Financiamiento



Fuente
French National Research Agency
Labex OSUG@2020
Facultad de Ingenieria at Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile
Rhpne-Alpes Region - ARC Environnement 3
ECOS-Sud project (Programme de cooperation ECOS SudCONICYT - Chile)
Chilean National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (ANID-CIGIDEN )
French National Research Agency in the Investissements d'Avenir program

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
This research was financially supported by a grant from LabEx OSUG@2020 (Investissements d'avenir ‐ ANR10 LABX56), the ECOS‐Sud project (Programme de coopération ECOS SudCONICYT ‐ Chile), a Ph.D. grand from Rhône‐Alpes Region ‐ ARC Environnement 3, and the French National Research Agency in the Investissements d'Avenir program (ANR‐15‐IDEX‐02) within the cross‐disciplinary Risk@Univ. Grenoble Alpes program. For the French and Chilean exchanges, it has benefited from the support of the Chilean National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (ANID‐CIGIDEN 15110017) and from the French National Research Agency through the Statistical Modelling for the Assessment and mitigation of mountain Risks in a changing Environment—SMARTEN program (ANR‐ 20‐Tremplin‐ERC8‐0001). IGE/INRAE is member of Labex OSUG. Also, Dr. Candia has received financial support from Facultad de Ingeniería at Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile.
This research was financially supported by a grant from LabEx OSUG@2020 (Investissements d'avenir - ANR10 LABX56), the ECOS-Sud project (Programme de cooperation ECOS SudCONICYT - Chile), a Ph.D. grand from Rhpne-Alpes Region - ARC Environnement 3, and the French National Research Agency in the Investissements d'Avenir program (ANR-15-IDEX-02) within the cross-disciplinary Risk@Univ. Grenoble Alpes program. For the French and Chilean exchanges, it has benefited from the support of the Chilean National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (ANID-CIGIDEN 15110017) and from the French National Research Agency through the Statistical Modelling for the Assessment and mitigation of mountain Risks in a changing Environment-SMARTEN program (ANR- 20-Tremplin-ERC8-0001). IGE/INRAE is member of Labex OSUG. Also, Dr. Candia has received financial support from Facultad de Ingenieria at Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.