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| DOI | 10.1111/RISA.14239 | ||||
| Año | 2023 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Over large regions exposed to natural disasters, cascading effects resulting from complex or concatenated natural processes may represent a large portion of total risk. Populated high-mountain environments are a major concern, and methods for large-scale quantitative risk analyses are urgently required to improve risk mitigation. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative rockfall risk assessment over a large archetypal valley of the Andean mountains, in Central Chile, which integrates a wide spectrum of elements at risk. Risk is expressed as an expected damage both in monetary terms and casualties, at different scales relevant for decision making. Notably, total rockfall risk is divided into its main drivers, which allows quantifying seismically induced rockfall risk. For this purpose, the local seismic hazard is quantified and the yield acceleration, that is, acceleration required to initiate rockfall, is determined at the regional scale. The probability of failure is thereafter derived in terms of annual frequency of rockfall initiation and integrated in the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) process. Our results show the significant role of seismic activity as the triggering mechanism of rockfalls, and highlight elements at risk that have a major contribution to the total risk. Eventually a sensitivity analysis is conducted to (i) assess the robustness of obtained risk estimates to the data and modeling choices and (ii) identify the most influential assumptions. Our approach evidences the feasibility of large-scale QRAs in sensitive environments and opens perspectives for refining QRAs in similar territories significantly affected by cascading effects and multihazards.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farvacque, Manon | - |
Université de Genève - Suiza
Universite Grenoble Alpes - Francia Univ Geneva - Suiza Univ Grenoble Alpes - Francia |
| 2 | Eckert, Nicolas | Hombre |
Universite Grenoble Alpes - Francia
Univ Grenoble Alpes - Francia |
| 3 | Candia, G. | Hombre |
Universidad del Desarrollo - Chile
ANID/FONDAP/15110017 - Chile Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile |
| 4 | Bourrier, Franck | Hombre |
Universite Grenoble Alpes - Francia
Univ Grenoble Alpes - Francia |
| 5 | Corona, Christophe | - |
Université de Genève - Suiza
Laboratoire de Géographie Physique et Environnementale, Clermont-Ferrand - Francia Univ Geneva - Suiza Univ Clermont Auvergne - Francia |
| 6 | Toe, David | - |
Universite Grenoble Alpes - Francia
Univ Grenoble Alpes - Francia |
| Fuente |
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| French National Research Agency |
| Labex OSUG@2020 |
| Facultad de Ingenieria at Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile |
| Rhpne-Alpes Region - ARC Environnement 3 |
| ECOS-Sud project (Programme de cooperation ECOS SudCONICYT - Chile) |
| Chilean National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (ANID-CIGIDEN ) |
| French National Research Agency in the Investissements d'Avenir program |
| Agradecimiento |
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| This research was financially supported by a grant from LabEx OSUG@2020 (Investissements d'avenir ‐ ANR10 LABX56), the ECOS‐Sud project (Programme de coopération ECOS SudCONICYT ‐ Chile), a Ph.D. grand from Rhône‐Alpes Region ‐ ARC Environnement 3, and the French National Research Agency in the Investissements d'Avenir program (ANR‐15‐IDEX‐02) within the cross‐disciplinary Risk@Univ. Grenoble Alpes program. For the French and Chilean exchanges, it has benefited from the support of the Chilean National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (ANID‐CIGIDEN 15110017) and from the French National Research Agency through the Statistical Modelling for the Assessment and mitigation of mountain Risks in a changing Environment—SMARTEN program (ANR‐ 20‐Tremplin‐ERC8‐0001). IGE/INRAE is member of Labex OSUG. Also, Dr. Candia has received financial support from Facultad de Ingeniería at Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile. |
| This research was financially supported by a grant from LabEx OSUG@2020 (Investissements d'avenir - ANR10 LABX56), the ECOS-Sud project (Programme de cooperation ECOS SudCONICYT - Chile), a Ph.D. grand from Rhpne-Alpes Region - ARC Environnement 3, and the French National Research Agency in the Investissements d'Avenir program (ANR-15-IDEX-02) within the cross-disciplinary Risk@Univ. Grenoble Alpes program. For the French and Chilean exchanges, it has benefited from the support of the Chilean National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (ANID-CIGIDEN 15110017) and from the French National Research Agency through the Statistical Modelling for the Assessment and mitigation of mountain Risks in a changing Environment-SMARTEN program (ANR- 20-Tremplin-ERC8-0001). IGE/INRAE is member of Labex OSUG. Also, Dr. Candia has received financial support from Facultad de Ingenieria at Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile. |