Colección SciELO Chile

Departamento Gestión de Conocimiento, Monitoreo y Prospección
Consultas o comentarios: productividad@anid.cl
Búsqueda Publicación
Búsqueda por Tema Título, Abstract y Keywords



Measuring Economic Uncertainty Synchrony with Cross-Sample Entropy under Common External Factors: The Case of Chile
Indexado
WoS WOS:001036934100001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85161885594
DOI 10.1142/S0219477523500463
Año 2023
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



In this paper, we measured the uncertainty synchrony level of Chilean business economic perception and consumer economic perception, both affected by common external factors reflected in the Global Economy Perception Index (GEPI), unemployment, inflation, interest rate, Monthly Economic Activity (MEAI) and the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPUI) indexes. We propose using the Composite Multiscale Partial Cross-Sample Entropy (CMPCSE), which quantifies the intrinsic similarity of both time series affected by a common external factor. Uncertainty is measured through the Business Confidence Index (BCI) and Consumer Perception Index (CPI). BCI time series provide useful information about industry, commerce, and the finance, mining, construction and agricultural sectors, the global economic and general business situation. CPI time series measure consumer perception regarding the state of the economy, with consumers evaluating their economic situation and expectations. Results showed a high level of synchronization between business and consumer perceptions in the indexes due to different factors. The most influential in the long term corresponded to unemployment, interest rates, and inflation, EPUI and MEAI, generating uncertainty over a longer period. In addition, the GEPI was found to have an immediate effect on synchronization and high dependence on global uncertainty. Therefore, results could be useful for decision-making related to public policies based on microeconomic indicators of the construction and natural resource sectors, for example.

Métricas Externas



PlumX Altmetric Dimensions

Muestra métricas de impacto externas asociadas a la publicación. Para mayor detalle:

Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Physics, Applied
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

Muestra la distribución de disciplinas para esta publicación.

Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



Muestra la distribución de colaboración, tanto nacional como extranjera, generada en esta publicación.


Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 TRONCOSO-LEON, NICOLAS ALFREDO Hombre Universidad de Valparaíso - Chile
2 CONTRERAS-REYES, JAVIER ESTEBAN Hombre Universidad de Valparaíso - Chile
3 Idrovo-Aguirrel, Byron J. Hombre Camara Chilena Construcc - Chile
Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez - Chile
Cámara Chilena de la Construcción - Chile

Muestra la afiliación y género (detectado) para los co-autores de la publicación.

Financiamiento



Fuente
FONDECYT

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.

Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
Contreras-Reyes's research was funded by FONDECYT (Chile) grant No. 11190116. The authors thank Zuguo Yu and Baogen Li for additional suggestions and useful Matlab codes on an earlier draft of this paper. The authors also thank the editor and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. The R and Matlab codes used in this work are available from the corresponding author upon request. Data is publicly available from the github repository at https://github. com/percepcioneseconomicas/indices/find/main.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.