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| DOI | 10.2166/WCC.2023.268 | ||||
| Año | 2023 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Globally, climate change has caused a significant reduction in snow cover in mountainous regions. To understand the impact of present and future snow changes on runoff in the semi-arid Andes, we applied the Hydro-BID hydrological model and associated datasets to the headwaters of the Elqui River basin (30 degrees S) for current conditions and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Results show that model calibration at daily, monthly and annual time scales (R-2 0.7, 0.7 and 0.8) and validation (R2 0.6, 0.7 and 0.7) were satisfactory. Future climate change scenario SSP2-4.5 indicates for 2040-2059, 2060-2079 and 2080-2099 temperature increases of 1.2, 1.6 and 1.9 degrees C and precipitation reductions of 26, 29 and 36%. Discharge for SSP2-4.5 will reduce (the average annual flow decreases by 54, 58 and 66%). For the same periods, SSP5-8.5 projects temperature increases of 1.5, 2.6 and 3.7 degrees C and precipitation reductions of 28, 39 and 44%. Compared to SSP2-4.5, river discharge will experience a more acute reduction (projected annual decrease of 57, 70 and 77%). Model results indicate that the maximum flow will be reached 3 months earlier than today. Results reinforce the importance of snow for runoff in the semi-arid Andes and the applicability of Hydro-BID in mountainous regions.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco, Eduardo Yanez | - |
Univ Alcala - España
Univ Rey Juan Carlos - España ULS Campus Andres Bello - Chile Universidad de Alcalá - España Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas - Chile |
| 1 | Francisco, Eduardo Yáñez San | - |
Universidad de Alcalá - España
Universidad Rey Juan Carlos - España Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas - Chile ULS Campus Andres Bello - Chile |
| 2 | Aguilar, Juan Antonio Pascual | - |
Univ Alcala De Henares - España
IMDEA Water Institute - España Universidad de Alcalá - España |
| 3 | MacDonell, Shelley | Mujer |
ULS Campus Andres Bello - Chile
Lincoln & Canterbury Univ - Nueva Zelanda Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas - Chile University of Canterbury - Nueva Zelanda |
| Agradecimiento |
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| We thank ANID-FONDECYT (1181540) and ANID-CENTROS REGIONALES (R20F0008) (RL3) projects for supporting this work. E.Y. would like to thank Maria San Francisco yWaldo Yanez for their infinite patience and unconditional support. We would also like to thank Dr Mauro Nalesso and Theresa Schutz for their willingness and time to teach E.Y. how to use Hydro-BID during the 'Getting to know Hydro-BID' technician course. |
| We thank ANID-FONDECYT (1181540) and ANID-CENTROS REGIONALES (R20F0008) (RL3) projects for supporting this work. E.Y. would like to thank María San Francisco y Waldo Yáñez for their infinite patience and unconditional support. We would also like to thank Dr Mauro Nalesso and Theresa Schutz for their willingness and time to teach E.Y. how to use Hydro-BID during the ‘Getting to know Hydro-BID’ technician course. |