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Identifying analogues for data-limited volcanoes using hierarchical clustering and expert knowledge: a case study of Melimoyu (Chile)
Indexado
WoS WOS:001003518200001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85161154584
DOI 10.3389/FEART.2023.1144386
Año 2023
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Determining the eruption frequency-Magnitude (f-M) relationship for data-limited volcanoes is challenging since it requires a comprehensive eruption record of the past eruptive activity. This is the case for Melimoyu, a long-dormant and data-limited volcano in the Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) in Chile with only two confirmed Holocene eruptions (VEI 5). To supplement the eruption records, we identified analogue volcanoes for Melimoyu (i.e., volcanoes that behave similarly and are identified through shared characteristics) using a quantitative and objective approach. Firstly, we compiled a global database containing 181 variables describing the eruptive history, tectonic setting, rock composition, and morphology of 1,428 volcanoes. This database was filtered primarily based on data availability into an input dataset comprising 37 numerical variables for 438 subduction zone volcanoes. Then, we applied Agglomerative Nesting, a bottom-up hierarchical clustering algorithm on three datasets derived from the input dataset: 1) raw data, 2) output from a Principal Component Analysis, and 3) weighted data tuned to minimise the dispersion in the absolute probability per VEI. Lastly, we identified the best set of analogues by analysing the dispersion in the absolute probability per VEI and applying a set of criteria deemed important by the local geological service, SERNAGEOMIN, and VB. Our analysis shows that the raw data generate a low dispersion and the highest number of analogues (n = 20). More than half of these analogues are in the SVZ, suggesting that the tectonic setting plays a key role in the clustering analysis. The eruption f-M relationship modelled from the analogue's eruption data shows that if Melimoyu has an eruption, there is a 49% probability (50th percentile) of it being VEI=4. Meanwhile, the annual absolute probability of a VEI=1, VEI 2, VEI 3, VEI 4, and VEI=5 eruption at Melimoyu is 4.82 x 10(-4), 1.2 x 10(-3), 1.45 x 10(-4), 9.77 x 10(-4), and 8.3 x 10(-4) (50th percentile), respectively. Our work shows the importance of using numerical variables to capture the variability across volcanoes and combining quantitative approaches with expert knowledge to assess the suitability of potential analogues. Additionally, this approach allows identifying groups of analogues and can be easily applied to other cases using numerical variables from the global database. Future work will use the analogues to populate an event tree and define eruption source parameters for modelling volcanic hazards at Melimoyu.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Frontiers In Earth Science 2296-6463

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Burgos, Vanesa Mujer Earth Observ Singapore - Singapur
Nanyang Technol Univ - Singapur
Earth Observatory of Singapore - Singapur
Asian School of the Environment - Singapur
2 Jenkins, Susanna F. F. Mujer Earth Observ Singapore - Singapur
Nanyang Technol Univ - Singapur
Earth Observatory of Singapore - Singapur
Asian School of the Environment - Singapur
3 Bastias Troncoso, Lilian Mujer Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile
3 Bono Troncoso, Laura Mujer Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile
Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile
4 Moya, Constanza Valeria Perales Mujer Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile
4 Perales Moya, Constanza Valeria Mujer Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile
Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile
5 Bebbington, Mark S. Hombre Massey Univ - Nueva Zelanda
Massey University - Nueva Zelanda
6 Newhall, Chris Hombre Mirisbiris Garden & Nat Ctr - Filipinas
Mirisbiris Garden and Nature Center - Filipinas
7 AMIGO-RAMOS, ALVARO MAURICIO Hombre Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile
8 Alonso, Jesus Prada Hombre UNIV AUTONOMA MADRID - España
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid - España
8 Prada Alonso, Jesús Hombre Universidad Autónoma de Madrid - España
UNIV AUTONOMA MADRID - España
9 Taisne, Benoit - Earth Observ Singapore - Singapur
Nanyang Technol Univ - Singapur
Earth Observatory of Singapore - Singapur
Asian School of the Environment - Singapur

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Financiamiento



Fuente
Ministry of Education - Singapore
National Research Foundation Singapore
Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative
Resilience to Nature's Challenges Volcano program, New Zealand
Earth Observatory of Singapore - National Research Foundation Singapore

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.

Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
This research was supported by the Earth Observatory of Singapore via its funding from the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work comprises EOS contribution number 504. MB was supported by the Resilience to Nature's Challenges Volcano program, New Zealand (contract number GNS-RNC047).
This research was supported by the Earth Observatory of Singapore via its funding from the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work comprises EOS contribution number 504. MB was supported by the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges Volcano program, New Zealand (contract number GNS-RNC047).

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.