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| DOI | 10.3389/FEART.2023.1144386 | ||||
| Año | 2023 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Determining the eruption frequency-Magnitude (f-M) relationship for data-limited volcanoes is challenging since it requires a comprehensive eruption record of the past eruptive activity. This is the case for Melimoyu, a long-dormant and data-limited volcano in the Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) in Chile with only two confirmed Holocene eruptions (VEI 5). To supplement the eruption records, we identified analogue volcanoes for Melimoyu (i.e., volcanoes that behave similarly and are identified through shared characteristics) using a quantitative and objective approach. Firstly, we compiled a global database containing 181 variables describing the eruptive history, tectonic setting, rock composition, and morphology of 1,428 volcanoes. This database was filtered primarily based on data availability into an input dataset comprising 37 numerical variables for 438 subduction zone volcanoes. Then, we applied Agglomerative Nesting, a bottom-up hierarchical clustering algorithm on three datasets derived from the input dataset: 1) raw data, 2) output from a Principal Component Analysis, and 3) weighted data tuned to minimise the dispersion in the absolute probability per VEI. Lastly, we identified the best set of analogues by analysing the dispersion in the absolute probability per VEI and applying a set of criteria deemed important by the local geological service, SERNAGEOMIN, and VB. Our analysis shows that the raw data generate a low dispersion and the highest number of analogues (n = 20). More than half of these analogues are in the SVZ, suggesting that the tectonic setting plays a key role in the clustering analysis. The eruption f-M relationship modelled from the analogue's eruption data shows that if Melimoyu has an eruption, there is a 49% probability (50th percentile) of it being VEI=4. Meanwhile, the annual absolute probability of a VEI=1, VEI 2, VEI 3, VEI 4, and VEI=5 eruption at Melimoyu is 4.82 x 10(-4), 1.2 x 10(-3), 1.45 x 10(-4), 9.77 x 10(-4), and 8.3 x 10(-4) (50th percentile), respectively. Our work shows the importance of using numerical variables to capture the variability across volcanoes and combining quantitative approaches with expert knowledge to assess the suitability of potential analogues. Additionally, this approach allows identifying groups of analogues and can be easily applied to other cases using numerical variables from the global database. Future work will use the analogues to populate an event tree and define eruption source parameters for modelling volcanic hazards at Melimoyu.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burgos, Vanesa | Mujer |
Earth Observ Singapore - Singapur
Nanyang Technol Univ - Singapur Earth Observatory of Singapore - Singapur Asian School of the Environment - Singapur |
| 2 | Jenkins, Susanna F. F. | Mujer |
Earth Observ Singapore - Singapur
Nanyang Technol Univ - Singapur Earth Observatory of Singapore - Singapur Asian School of the Environment - Singapur |
| 3 | Bastias Troncoso, Lilian | Mujer |
Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile |
| 3 | Bono Troncoso, Laura | Mujer |
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile
Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile |
| 4 | Moya, Constanza Valeria Perales | Mujer |
Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile |
| 4 | Perales Moya, Constanza Valeria | Mujer |
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile
Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile |
| 5 | Bebbington, Mark S. | Hombre |
Massey Univ - Nueva Zelanda
Massey University - Nueva Zelanda |
| 6 | Newhall, Chris | Hombre |
Mirisbiris Garden & Nat Ctr - Filipinas
Mirisbiris Garden and Nature Center - Filipinas |
| 7 | AMIGO-RAMOS, ALVARO MAURICIO | Hombre |
Serv Nacl Geol & Min SERNAGEOMIN - Chile
Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería - Chile |
| 8 | Alonso, Jesus Prada | Hombre |
UNIV AUTONOMA MADRID - España
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid - España |
| 8 | Prada Alonso, Jesús | Hombre |
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid - España
UNIV AUTONOMA MADRID - España |
| 9 | Taisne, Benoit | - |
Earth Observ Singapore - Singapur
Nanyang Technol Univ - Singapur Earth Observatory of Singapore - Singapur Asian School of the Environment - Singapur |
| Fuente |
|---|
| Ministry of Education - Singapore |
| National Research Foundation Singapore |
| Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative |
| Resilience to Nature's Challenges Volcano program, New Zealand |
| Earth Observatory of Singapore - National Research Foundation Singapore |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| This research was supported by the Earth Observatory of Singapore via its funding from the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work comprises EOS contribution number 504. MB was supported by the Resilience to Nature's Challenges Volcano program, New Zealand (contract number GNS-RNC047). |
| This research was supported by the Earth Observatory of Singapore via its funding from the National Research Foundation Singapore and the Singapore Ministry of Education under the Research Centres of Excellence initiative. This work comprises EOS contribution number 504. MB was supported by the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges Volcano program, New Zealand (contract number GNS-RNC047). |