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Extreme indices of temperature and precipitation in South America: trends and intercomparison of regional climate models
Indexado
WoS WOS:000905574700002
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85144733443
DOI 10.1007/S00382-022-06598-2
Año 2022
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide climate information required for evaluating vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation at finer scales than their global driving models. As they explicitly resolve the basic conservation and state equations, they solve physics with more detail, conserving teleconnection of larger scales provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs). In South America (SA), the regional simulations have been historically evaluated principally on climatological aspects, but the representativeness of extremes still needs a more profound assessment. This study aims to analyze three RCMs (RegCM4-7, REMO2015, and Eta) driven by different GCMs in SA, focusing on their capacity to reproduce extreme historical indices of daily precipitation and temperature. The indices of maximum consecutive 5 days precipitation (Rx5day), Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), daily maximum and minimum annual temperature (TXx and TNn, respectively) were evaluated regarding the historical spatio-temporal variability and trends. Furthermore, their projections for the 2071-2099 period, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, were analyzed. The historical behavior of RCMs (1981-2005) was compared with two gridded products: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and agrometeorological indicators derived from the fifth generation of global reanalysis produced by the ECMWF (AgERA5), previously compared with records from meteorological stations to evaluate them. The results show that the highest differences within the gridded products and stations were observed in the regions with more scarce surface stations (North and West of SA) and with complex topography (The Andes Cordillera), being more pronounced in the precipitation-based indices. We found that RCMs generally show more agreement in the spatial variability than in the inter-annual variability for all the indices and SA regions. When analyzing the observed trends, all models better reproduced the long-term variability of extreme temperature indices than those of rainfall. More disagreement was observed for Rx5day and CDD indices trends, including substantial spatial heterogeneities in both magnitude and sign of tendency. Climate change projections exhibited significant agreement to warmer conditions in TXx and TNn, but precipitation signals differed between RCMs and the driving GCM within each regional model. Maximum dry spells are expected to increase in almost all SA regions, whereas the climate change signals in extreme precipitation events are more consistent over southeastern SA (northern and southwestern SA), with positive (negative) changes by the end of the century.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Climate Dynamics 0930-7575

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 LAGOS-ZUNIGA, MIGUEL ANGEL Hombre Universidad de Chile - Chile
Advanced Mining Technology Center - Chile
Centro Avanzado de Tecnologia para la Mineria - Chile
2 Balmaceda-Huarte, Rocio - Univ Buenos Aires DCAO FCEN UBA - Argentina
Natl Council Sci & Tech Res CONICET - Argentina
CNRS CONICET UBA - Argentina
Universidad de Buenos Aires - Argentina
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas - Argentina
3 Regoto, Pedro Hombre Natl Inst Space Res INPE - Brasil
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - Brasil
4 Torrez-Rodriguez, Limbert - Universidad de la Serena - Chile
5 Olmo, Matias Hombre Univ Buenos Aires DCAO FCEN UBA - Argentina
Natl Council Sci & Tech Res CONICET - Argentina
CNRS CONICET UBA - Argentina
Universidad de Buenos Aires - Argentina
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas - Argentina
6 Lyra, Andre Hombre Natl Inst Space Res INPE - Brasil
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - Brasil
7 Quispe, David Pareja Hombre Natl Inst Space Res INPE - Brasil
Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos - Perú
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - Brasil
Univ Nacl Mayor San Marcos UNMSM - Perú
8 Bettolli, Maria Laura Mujer Univ Buenos Aires DCAO FCEN UBA - Argentina
Natl Council Sci & Tech Res CONICET - Argentina
CNRS CONICET UBA - Argentina
Universidad de Buenos Aires - Argentina
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas - Argentina

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Financiamiento



Fuente
FONDECYT
ANPCyT
Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
University of Buenos Aires
Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES), Brazil
FONDAP Research Center
ANID-PIA
ANID-PIA Project
ANID Doctorado Nacional
Centro Avanzado de Tecnología para la Minería
FONDAP Research Center (CR)2

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.

Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
Miguel Lagos-Zuniga acknowledges the funding grant ANID Doctorado Nacional Number: 21192178, FONDAP Research Center (CR)2 (15110009), and the ANID-PIA Project AFB180004 (AMTC). Limbert Torrez has received funding support from FONDECYT through grant 1201742. R. Balmaceda-Huarte, ME. Olmo and ML. Bettolli were founded by the Argentinian projects 2018-20020170100117BA, 20020170100357BA from the University of Buenos Aires, and the ANPCyT PICT-2018-02496 and PICT 2019-02933. David Pareja-Quispe is thankful for the scholarship from Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES), Brazil-Finance Code 001.
Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga acknowledges the funding grant ANID Doctorado Nacional Number: 21192178, FONDAP Research Center (CR)2 (15110009), and the ANID-PIA Project AFB180004 (AMTC). Limbert Torrez has received funding support from FONDECYT through grant 1201742. R. Balmaceda-Huarte, ME. Olmo and ML. Bettolli were founded by the Argentinian projects 2018-20020170100117BA, 20020170100357BA from the University of Buenos Aires, and the ANPCyT PICT-2018-02496 and PICT 2019-02933. David Pareja-Quispe is thankful for the scholarship from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), Brazil - Finance Code 001.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.