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| DOI | 10.1016/J.JEMPFIN.2022.06.001 | ||||
| Año | 2022 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
This paper performs an out-of-sample comparison of linear factor asset pricing models from an economic perspective under predictability. I assess the economic value added of several factor models when a Bayesian investor is faced with a portfolio allocation problem whereby each model imposes cross-sectional restrictions on the parameters of a predictive stock return regression. The empirical framework explicitly accounts for investor skepticism about the model, i.e., mispricing uncertainty. Despite vast statistical work on in-sample model comparison for the new-generation asset-pricing models, their out-of-sample performance cannot beat a simple benchmark on a wide range of tests from an economic perspective. This is consistent with thus extends the conclusion for the first-generation of factor models. An exceptional case of factor models yielding significant economic gains is observed when evaluating industry portfolios at the shortest horizon (1-month). In this case, I find that the q5 model of Hou et al. (2021) and the behavioral factor model of Stambaugh and Yuan (2017) outperform the historical benchmark in several cases.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
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| 1 | HANSEN-SILVA, ERWIN GUILLERMO | Hombre |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
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| Fuente |
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| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico |
| French Finance Association |
| AFFI |
| Agradecimiento |
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| I am thankful for useful comments from Massimo Guidolin, Julieta Yung, James Kolari, Francesco Rotondi, and seminar participants at the RCEA Bayesian Workshop (2018), the Financial Markets and Non-linear Dynamics Conference (FMND, 2019), the FMA Annual Meeting (New Orleans, 2019), and the 37th International Conference of the French Finance Association (AFFI, 2021). I acknowledge financial support from FONDECYT (CHILE) grant 11150693 . |
| I am thankful for useful comments from Massimo Guidolin, Julieta Yung, James Kolari, Francesco Rotondi, and seminar participants at the RCEA Bayesian Workshop (2018), the Financial Markets and Non-linear Dynamics Conference (FMND, 2019), the FMA Annual Meeting (New Orleans, 2019), and the 37th International Conference of the French Finance Association (AFFI, 2021). I acknowledge financial support from FONDECYT (CHILE) grant 11150693 . |