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Causal treatment effects in time series: CO2 emissions and energy consumption effect on GDP
Indexado
WoS WOS:000792596200010
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85126088441
DOI 10.1016/J.ENERGY.2022.123625
Año 2022
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



This study broadens the research on the use of neural networks in conjunction with causality techniques for economic policy development. Empirical evidence is presented on the effects of energy consumption and carbon emissions on per capita economic growth with unbalanced panel data for 94 countries between 1971 and 2018. We present a methodological framework that employs the transformation of time series into a set of treatment intervals according to potential policies that a country may adopt. Based on treatment intervals, a two-stage model based on recurrent neural networks (Long Short-Term Memory) is proposed together with a multiclass classifier to obtain propensity scores. We then estimate the effects using the dynamic potential outcomes under a framework of treatment-based causality. The results indicate that for both energy consumption and carbon emissions policies, the treatment range that generates the best performance is between −2% and 0.4%; moreover, in both cases, extreme policies such as drastically reducing or increasing energy consumption generates the worst results for economic development. We find that when grouping countries according to income level, mid-low and low levels of income have better development under moderate growth policy with respect to levels of carbon emissions and energy consumption, supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. This finding could be related to the fact that these countries do not have the level of infrastructure to sustain growth. However, the impact of this growth on pollution would not be comparable to the reduction effect of high-income countries, given that they make the largest overall contribution to global emissions.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Energy 0360-5442

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Thermodynamics
Energy & Fuels
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Llanos, Cristian Hombre Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
2 KRISTJANPOLLER-RODRIGUEZ, WERNER DAVID Hombre Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
3 Michell, Kevin Hombre Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
4 Minutolo, Marcel Hombre Robert Morris University - Estados Unidos
Robert Morris Univ - Estados Unidos

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Financiamiento



Fuente
Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María
DGIIP
Dirección General de Investigación, Innovación y Postgrado
ANID
National Agency for Research and Development
Universidad T?cnica Federico Santa Mar?a
National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Chile
Direccion General de Investigacion, Innovacion y Postgrado (DGIIP) of the Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria, Chile through the "Programa de Incentivos a la Iniciacion Cientifica" (PIIC) initiative

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
We acknowledge financial support from the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Chile FONDECYT - 1200555. Also, would like to thank the Direcci?n General de Investigaci?n, Innovaci?n y Postgrado (DGIIP) of the Universidad T?cnica Federico Santa Mar?a, Chile for financial support through the ?Programa de Incentivos a la Iniciaci?n Cient?fica? (PIIC) initiative.
We acknowledge financial support from the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Chile FONDECYT - 1200555. Also, would like to thank the Direcci?n General de Investigaci?n, Innovaci?n y Postgrado (DGIIP) of the Universidad T?cnica Federico Santa Mar?a, Chile for financial support through the ?Programa de Incentivos a la Iniciaci?n Cient?fica? (PIIC) initiative.
We acknowledge financial support from the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Chile FONDECYT -1200555. Also, would like to thank the Direccion General de Investigacion, Innovacion y Postgrado (DGIIP) of the Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria, Chile for financial support through the "Programa de Incentivos a la Iniciacion Cientifica" (PIIC) initiative.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.