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| Indexado |
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| DOI | 10.1016/J.CHAOS.2022.112199 | ||||
| Año | 2022 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Machine learning algorithms have opened a breach in the prediction's fortress of high-dimensional chaotic systems. Their ability to find hidden correlations in data can be exploited to perform model-free forecasting of spatiotemporal chaos and extreme events. However, the extensive feature of these evolutions makes up a critical limitation for full-size forecasting processes. Hence, the main challenge for forecasting relevant events is to establish the set of pertinent information. Here, we identify precursors from the transfer entropy of the system and a deep Long Short-Term Memory network to forecast the complex dynamics of a system evolving in a high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaotic regime. Performances of this triggerable model-free prediction protocol based on the information flowing map are tested from experimental data originating from a passive resonator operating in such a complex nonlinear regime. We have been able to predict the occurrence of extreme events up to 9 round trips after the detection of precursor, i.e., 3 times the horizon provided by Lyapunov exponents, with 92% of true positive predictions leading to 60% of accuracy. We have implemented a process to forecast extreme events in a fully developed turbulent flow. The novelty of our strategy lies in the information's use theory method to detect precursors and use them as the input of a neural network to infer the incoming extreme events. Our process is suitable for all the extended dissipative systems that can only be partially observed or real-world data.
| WOS |
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| Physics, Multidisciplinary |
| Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications |
| Physics, Mathematical |
| Scopus |
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| Engineering (All) |
| Applied Mathematics |
| Mathematical Physics |
| Physics And Astronomy (All) |
| Statistical And Nonlinear Physics |
| SciELO |
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| Sin Disciplinas |
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coulibaly, Saliya | - |
Université de Lille - Francia
Univ Lille - Francia |
| 2 | Bessin, F. | Hombre |
Aston University - Reino Unido
Aston Univ - Reino Unido |
| 3 | CLERC-GAVILAN, MARCEL GABRIEL | Hombre |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
|
| 4 | Mussot, Arnaud | Hombre |
Université de Lille - Francia
Univ Lille - Francia |
| Fuente |
|---|
| FONDECYT |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico |
| European Regional Development Fund |
| H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions |
| Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique |
| French government |
| LABEX CEMPI |
| Ministry of Higher Education and Research, Hauts de France council |
| CNRS (IRP LAFONI project) Equipex T-REFIMEVE and H2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) |
| European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Contract de Projets Etat-Region (CPER Photonics for Society) |
| French government through the Programme Investissement d'avenir (I-SITE) |
| Millennium Institute for Research in Optics, ANID- Millennium Science Initiative Program |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| SC, AM, FB acknowledge the LABEX CEMPI (ANR-11-LABX-0007) as well as the Ministry of Higher Education and Research, Hauts de France council and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Contract de Projets Etat-Region (CPER Photonics for Society P4S), the French government through the Programme Investissement d'avenir (I-SITE ULNE/ANR-16-IDEX-0004 ULNE), the CNRS (IRP LAFONI project) Equipex T-REFIMEVE and H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)(713694). M.G.C. thanks for the financial support of FONDECYT project 1210353 and Millennium Institute for Research in Optics , ANID–Millennium Science Initiative Program-ICN17_012. |
| SC, AM, FB acknowledge the LABEX CEMPI (ANR-11-LABX-0007) as well as the Ministry of Higher Education and Research, Hauts de France council and European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Contract de Projets Etat-Region (CPER Photonics for Society P4S) , the French government through the Programme Investissement d'avenir (I-SITE ULNE/ANR-16-IDEX-0004 ULNE) , the CNRS (IRP LAFONI project) Equipex T-REFIMEVE and H2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) (713694) . M.G.C. thanks for the financial support of FONDECYT project 1210353 and Millennium Institute for Research in Optics, ANID- Millennium Science Initiative Program-ICN17_012. |