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Demand analysis and capacity management for hospital emergencies using advanced forecasting models and stochastic simulation
Indexado
WoS WOS:000731789400002
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85120337031
DOI 10.1016/J.ORP.2021.100208
Año 2021
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Demand forecasting and capacity management are complicated tasks for emergency healthcare services due to the uncertainty, complex relationships, and high public exposure involved. Published research does not show integrated solutions to these tasks. Thus, the objective of this paper is to present results from three hospitals that show the feasibility of routinely applying integrated forecasting and capacity management with advanced operations research tools. After testing several forecasting methods, neural networks and support vector regression provided the best results in terms of variance and accuracy. Based on this forecasting, a logic for managing hospital capacity was designed and implemented. This logic includes the comparison between the forecasted demand and the available medical resources and a stochastic simulation model to assess the performance of different configurations of facilities and resources. The logic also provides hospital managers with a decision tool for determining the number and distribution of medical resources on emergency services based on a cost/benefit analysis of resources and service improvement. Such results support the task of assigning doctors to different kinds of boxes, defining their work schedules, and considering additional doctors. The contribution of this paper consists of an integrated solution designed to implement the abovementioned logic. This solution combines forecasting, simulation for capacity management, process design, and IT support, facilitating the practical routine use of complex models. The integration explicitly considers a solution that also has adaptation capabilities to facilitate use under changing conditions. The solution is also general and admits adaptation and extension to other services. Thus, we have already performed similar work for ambulatory and surgical services.

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Operations Research & Management Science
Scopus
Strategy And Management
Management Science And Operations Research
Statistics And Probability
Control And Optimization
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Barros, Oscar Hombre Universidad de Chile - Chile
2 Weber, Richard Hombre Universidad de Chile - Chile
3 REVECO-DIAZ, CARLOS ANDRES Hombre Universidad de Chile - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
ANID
ANID PIA/APOYO
HEGC

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
We acknowledge support from the following authorities: Begona Yarza Director at HEGC, Osvaldo Artaza Director at HLCM, and Inti Paredes Director at HSBA. The second author acknowledges support from ANID PIA/APOYO AFB180003.
We acknowledge support from the following authorities: Begoña Yarza Director at HEGC, Osvaldo Artaza Director at HLCM, and Inti Paredes Director at HSBA. The second author acknowledges support from ANID PIA/APOYO AFB180003.

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