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Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models
Indexado
WoS WOS:000744796200001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85123265487
DOI 10.1007/S10518-021-01312-9
Año 2022
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



In seismic risk assessment, the sources of uncertainty associated with building exposure modelling have not received as much attention as other components related to hazard and vulnerability. Conventional practices such as assuming absolute portfolio compositions (i.e., proportions per building class) from expert-based assumptions over aggregated data crudely disregard the contribution of uncertainty of the exposure upon earthquake loss models. In this work, we introduce the concept that the degree of knowledge of a building stock can be described within a Bayesian probabilistic approach that integrates both expert-based prior distributions and data collection on individual buildings. We investigate the impact of the epistemic uncertainty in the portfolio composition on scenario-based earthquake loss models through an exposure-oriented logic tree arrangement based on synthetic building portfolios. For illustrative purposes, we consider the residential building stock of Valparaiso (Chile) subjected to seismic ground-shaking from one subduction earthquake. We have found that building class reconnaissance, either from prior assumptions by desktop studies with aggregated data (top-down approach), or from building-by-building data collection (bottom-up approach), plays a fundamental role in the statistical modelling of exposure. To model the vulnerability of such a heterogeneous building stock, we require that their associated set of structural fragility functions handle multiple spectral periods. Thereby, we also discuss the relevance and specific uncertainty upon generating either uncorrelated or spatially cross-correlated ground motion fields within this framework. We successively show how various epistemic uncertainties embedded within these probabilistic exposure models are differently propagated throughout the computed direct financial losses. This work calls for further efforts to redesign desktop exposure studies, while also highlighting the importance of exposure data collection with standardized and iterative approaches.

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Engineering, Geological
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Gomez Zapata, Juan Camilo Hombre Helmholtz Ctr Potsdam - Alemania
Univ Potsdam - Alemania
Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) - Alemania
Universität Potsdam - Alemania
2 Pittore, Massimiliano Hombre Helmholtz Ctr Potsdam - Alemania
Eurac Res - Italia
Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) - Alemania
Eurac Research - Italia
3 Cotton, Fabrice Hombre Helmholtz Ctr Potsdam - Alemania
Univ Potsdam - Alemania
Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) - Alemania
Universität Potsdam - Alemania
4 Lilienkamp, Henning Hombre Helmholtz Ctr Potsdam - Alemania
Univ Potsdam - Alemania
Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) - Alemania
Universität Potsdam - Alemania
5 Shinde, Simantini - Helmholtz Ctr Potsdam - Alemania
Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) - Alemania
6 AGUIRRE-APARICIO, PAULA Mujer Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
ANID/FONDAP/15110017 - Chile
7 SANTA MARIA-OYANEDEL, RAUL HERNAN Hombre Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile
ANID/FONDAP/15110017 - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
CIGIDEN
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN)
Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management
Projekt DEAL
ANID-Fondecyt
Helmholtz Einstein International Berlin Research School in Data Science (HEIBRiDS)
Helmholtz Einstein International Berlin Research School in Data Science

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. The authors disclose the receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: J.C. Gomez-Zapata, M. Pittore, and S. Shinde from the RIESGOS and RIESGOS 2.0 projects, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), with Grant No. 03G0876A-J and 03G0905A-H respectively. These projects are part of the funding programme CLIENT II-International Partner-ships for Sustainable Innovations'. H. Lilienkamp was funded by the Helmholtz Einstein International Berlin Research School in Data Science (HEIBRiDS). P. Aguirre and H. Santa Maria have been funded by the Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN), ANID/FONDAP/15110017 and ANID-FONDECYT 1191543.
Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. The authors disclose the receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: J.C. Gomez-Zapata, M. Pittore, and S. Shinde from the RIESGOS and RIESGOS 2.0 projects, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), with Grant No. 03G0876A-J and 03G0905A-H respectively. These projects are part of the funding programme CLIENT II—International Partner-ships for Sustainable Innovations’. H. Lilienkamp was funded by the Helmholtz Einstein International Berlin Research School in Data Science (HEIBRiDS). P. Aguirre and H. Santa Maria have been funded by the Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (CIGIDEN), ANID/FONDAP/15110017 and ANID-FONDECYT 1191543.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.