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A Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model for Daily Streamflow Ensemble Forecasting
Indexado
WoS WOS:000703704400052
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85115760669
DOI 10.1029/2021WR029920
Año 2021
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



A novel Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) for ensemble forecasts of daily streamflow is presented that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology and hydrometeorological variables from the upstream contributing area between station gauges. Model parameters are allowed to vary with time as functions of selected covariates for each day. Using the network structure to incorporate flow information from upstream gauges and precipitation from the immediate contributing area as covariates allows one to model the spatial correlation of flows simultaneously and parsimoniously. An application to daily monsoon period (July–August) streamflow at three gauges in the Narmada basin in central India for the period 1978–2014 is presented. The best set of covariates include daily streamflow from upstream gauges or from the gauge above the upstream gauges depending on travel times and daily precipitation from the area between two stations. The model validation indicates that the model is highly skillful relative to a null-model of generalized linear regression, which represents the analogous non-Bayesian forecast. The ensemble spread of BHNM accounts for the forecast uncertainty leading to reliable and skillful streamflow predictions.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Water Resources Research 0043-1397

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Environmental Sciences
Limnology
Water Resources
Scopus
Water Science And Technology
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Ossandon, Alvaro Hombre University of Colorado Boulder - Estados Unidos
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
UNIV COLORADO - Estados Unidos
College of Engineering and Applied Science - Estados Unidos
2 Rajagopalan, Balaji - University of Colorado Boulder - Estados Unidos
UNIV COLORADO - Estados Unidos
College of Engineering and Applied Science - Estados Unidos
3 Lall, Upmanu - Earth Institute - Estados Unidos
Columbia Univ - Estados Unidos
The Fu Foundation School of Engineering and Applied Science - Estados Unidos
4 Nanditha, J. S. - Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar - India
Indian Inst Technol - India
5 Mishra, Vimal - Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar - India
Indian Inst Technol - India

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Financiamiento



Fuente
Ministry of Earth sciences
ANID
National Agency for Research and Development
Monsoon Mission project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, India
Fulbright Foreign Student Program
National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Scholarship Program/DOCTORADO BECAS CHILE/2015

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.

Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
This project was funded by the Monsoon Mission project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, India. We also acknowledge the support from the Fulbright Foreign Student Program and the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Scholarship Program/DOCTORADO BECAS CHILE/2015–56150013 to the first author.
This project was funded by the Monsoon Mission project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, India. We also acknowledge the support from the Fulbright Foreign Student Program and the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Scholarship Program/DOCTORADO BECAS CHILE/2015-56150013 to the first author.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.