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| Indexado |
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| DOI | 10.1029/2021WR029920 | ||||
| Año | 2021 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
A novel Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) for ensemble forecasts of daily streamflow is presented that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology and hydrometeorological variables from the upstream contributing area between station gauges. Model parameters are allowed to vary with time as functions of selected covariates for each day. Using the network structure to incorporate flow information from upstream gauges and precipitation from the immediate contributing area as covariates allows one to model the spatial correlation of flows simultaneously and parsimoniously. An application to daily monsoon period (July–August) streamflow at three gauges in the Narmada basin in central India for the period 1978–2014 is presented. The best set of covariates include daily streamflow from upstream gauges or from the gauge above the upstream gauges depending on travel times and daily precipitation from the area between two stations. The model validation indicates that the model is highly skillful relative to a null-model of generalized linear regression, which represents the analogous non-Bayesian forecast. The ensemble spread of BHNM accounts for the forecast uncertainty leading to reliable and skillful streamflow predictions.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ossandon, Alvaro | Hombre |
University of Colorado Boulder - Estados Unidos
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile UNIV COLORADO - Estados Unidos College of Engineering and Applied Science - Estados Unidos |
| 2 | Rajagopalan, Balaji | - |
University of Colorado Boulder - Estados Unidos
UNIV COLORADO - Estados Unidos College of Engineering and Applied Science - Estados Unidos |
| 3 | Lall, Upmanu | - |
Earth Institute - Estados Unidos
Columbia Univ - Estados Unidos The Fu Foundation School of Engineering and Applied Science - Estados Unidos |
| 4 | Nanditha, J. S. | - |
Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar - India
Indian Inst Technol - India |
| 5 | Mishra, Vimal | - |
Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar - India
Indian Inst Technol - India |
| Fuente |
|---|
| Ministry of Earth sciences |
| ANID |
| National Agency for Research and Development |
| Monsoon Mission project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, India |
| Fulbright Foreign Student Program |
| National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Scholarship Program/DOCTORADO BECAS CHILE/2015 |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| This project was funded by the Monsoon Mission project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, India. We also acknowledge the support from the Fulbright Foreign Student Program and the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Scholarship Program/DOCTORADO BECAS CHILE/2015–56150013 to the first author. |
| This project was funded by the Monsoon Mission project of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, India. We also acknowledge the support from the Fulbright Foreign Student Program and the National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) Scholarship Program/DOCTORADO BECAS CHILE/2015-56150013 to the first author. |