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Non-Stationary Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments Incorporating Climate-Change-Driven Sea Level Rise
Indexado
WoS WOS:000666656400013
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85108614862
DOI 10.1029/2021EF002007
Año 2021
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



We face a new era in the assessment of multiple natural hazards whose statistics are becoming alarmingly non-stationary due to ubiquitous long-term changes in climate. One particular case is tsunami hazard affected by climate-change-driven sea level rise (SLR). A traditional tsunami hazard assessment approach where SLR is omitted or included as a constant sea-level offset in a probabilistic calculation may misrepresent the impacts of climate-change. In this paper, a general method called non-stationary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (nPTHA), is developed to include the long-term time-varying changes in mean sea level. The nPTHA is based on a non-stationary Poisson process model, which takes advantage of the independence of arrivals within non-overlapping time-intervals to specify a temporally varying hazard mean recurrence rate, affected by SLR. The nPTHA is applied to the South China Sea (SCS) for tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the Manila Subduction Zone. The method provides unique and comprehensive results for inundation hazard, combining tsunami and SLR at a specific location over a given exposure time. The results show that in the SCS, SLR has a significant impact when its amplitude is comparable to that of tsunamis with moderate probability of exceedance. The SLR and its associated uncertainty produce an impact on nPTHA results comparable to that caused by the uncertainty in the earthquake recurrence model. These findings are site-specific and must be analyzed for different regions. The proposed methodology, however, is sufficiently general to include other non-stationary phenomena and can be exploited for other hazards affected by SLR.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Earths Future 2328-4277

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Sepulveda, Ignacio Hombre Univ San Diego - Estados Unidos
CORNELL UNIV - Estados Unidos
Cecil H. and Ida M. Green Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics - Estados Unidos
Cornell University College of Engineering - Estados Unidos
2 Haase, Jennifer S. Mujer Univ San Diego - Estados Unidos
Cecil H. and Ida M. Green Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics - Estados Unidos
3 Liu, Philip L.F. Hombre CORNELL UNIV - Estados Unidos
Natl Cen Univ Taiwan - Taiwán
Natl Univ Singapore - Singapur
Cornell University College of Engineering - Estados Unidos
National Central University - Taiwán
National University of Singapore - Singapur
4 Grigoriu, Mircea Hombre CORNELL UNIV - Estados Unidos
Cornell University College of Engineering - Estados Unidos
5 Winckler, Patricio Hombre Universidad de Valparaíso - Chile
Centro Nacional de Investigacion para la Gestion Integrada de Desastres Naturales - Chile
Ctr Observac Marino Estudios Riesgos Ambiente Cor - Chile
Centro de Investigación para la Gestión Integrada del Riesgo de Desastres (CIGIDEN) - Chile
Centro de Observación Marino para Estudios de Riesgos del Ambiente Corstero - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
National Science Foundation
National Research Foundation
National Research Foundation of Korea
National University of Singapore
Green Foundation
ANID FONDAP
Earth Observatory of Singapore
John Miles Fellowship
Civil Engineering and Development Department of Hong Kong
Marine Department of Hong Kong
National Central University in Taiwan

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.

Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
Tsunami simulations employed the model COMCOT and some figures were created using GMT. The authors would like to thank the Marine Department of Hong Kong, the Civil Engineering and Development Department of Hong Kong, and Dr. Tso-Ren Wu from National Central University in Taiwan for their valuable support in this and previous studies. The authors also would like to thank H. Fricker for insightful comments on the IPCC Assessment Reports and the sea level rise models. The authors also thank the valuable comments of two anonymous reviewers. I. Sepulveda would like to acknowledge the support of the John Miles Fellowship and the Green Foundation. J. S. Haase would like to acknowledge the support of National Science Foundation Grant OAC-1835372. P. L-F. Liu would like to acknowledge the support from the National Research Foundation through a research grant to National University of Singapore and a research grant from the Earth Observatory of Singapore. P. Winckler thanks grant ANID FONDAP 15110017 (CIGIDEN) for the financial support during this study.
Tsunami simulations employed the model COMCOT and some figures were created using GMT. The authors would like to thank the Marine Department of Hong Kong, the Civil Engineering and Development Department of Hong Kong, and Dr. Tso‐Ren Wu from National Central University in Taiwan for their valuable support in this and previous studies. The authors also would like to thank H. Fricker for insightful comments on the IPCC Assessment Reports and the sea level rise models. The authors also thank the valuable comments of two anonymous reviewers. I. Sepúlveda would like to acknowledge the support of the John Miles Fellowship and the Green Foundation. J. S. Haase would like to acknowledge the support of National Science Foundation Grant OAC‐1835372. P. L‐F. Liu would like to acknowledge the support from the National Research Foundation through a research grant to National University of Singapore and a research grant from the Earth Observatory of Singapore. P. Winckler thanks grant ANID FONDAP 15110017 (CIGIDEN) for the financial support during this study.
Tsunami simulations employed the model COMCOT and some figures were created using GMT. The authors would like to thank the Marine Department of Hong Kong, the Civil Engineering and Development Department of Hong Kong, and Dr. Tso‐Ren Wu from National Central University in Taiwan for their valuable support in this and previous studies. The authors also would like to thank H. Fricker for insightful comments on the IPCC Assessment Reports and the sea level rise models. The authors also thank the valuable comments of two anonymous reviewers. I. Sepúlveda would like to acknowledge the support of the John Miles Fellowship and the Green Foundation. J. S. Haase would like to acknowledge the support of National Science Foundation Grant OAC‐1835372. P. L‐F. Liu would like to acknowledge the support from the National Research Foundation through a research grant to National University of Singapore and a research grant from the Earth Observatory of Singapore. P. Winckler thanks grant ANID FONDAP 15110017 (CIGIDEN) for the financial support during this study.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.