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| DOI | 10.1002/JOC.7096 | ||||
| Año | 2021 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
The ability to anticipate meteorological extreme events beyond the synoptic range of similar to 1 week offers direct applications, for example, to limit their ecological and socioeconomical impacts. This study focuses on precursors of summer (December-February, DJF) warm events, particularly heat waves, in central Chile (CCh), which are typically induced by low-level anticyclonic anomalies located to the south of this region. Considering that such atmospheric configuration can be part of a large-scale wave-train circulation pattern located upstream of CCh, we investigate signals that might provide guidance concerning the genesis of warm events in CCh. For a historical period (DJF 1872-2010) based on the 20th century reanalysis version 2 (20CR), our results present teleconnections that indicate higher probabilities of occurrence of such warm events with respect to expected climatological values. These signals can be monitored at least similar to 2 weeks in advance. Specifically, we explore the relationship between warm events in CCh and (a) the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a tropical source of variability, and (b) an extra-tropical index (ETI), representative of the internal dynamics of the Southern Hemipshere mid-latitudes, presented as an original contribution from this study following a novel approach. Both signals, and apparently their constructive superposition, seem to contribute to the organization of the large-scale circulation anomalies leading ultimately to heat waves in CCh. We confirm these results for recent decades (DJF 1981-2020) using temperature observations and further data sets, namely the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (NNR) and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis versions 1 and 2 (CFSR and CFSv2, respectively). Finally, we describe three recent heat wave events in CCh (DJF 2019-2020) to illustrate the suitability of this conceptualization.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacques-Coper, Martin | Hombre |
Universidad de Concepción - Chile
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| 2 | Veloso-Aguila, Daniel | Hombre |
Universidad de Concepción - Chile
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| 3 | SEGURA-RIVERA, CRISTIAN JAVIER | Hombre |
Universidad de Concepción - Chile
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| 4 | Valencia, Amanda | Mujer |
Universidad de Concepción - Chile
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| Fuente |
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| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
| Bureau of Meteorology |
| Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo (ANID), Chile |
| Office of AIDS Research |
| ANID-Chile |
| NCEP-NCAR Re-Analysis |
| Earth System Research Laboratories |
| Agradecimiento |
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| Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo (ANID), Chile, Grant/Award Numbers: ANID/FONDAP/15110009, ANID/FONDECYT/11170486, ANID/PAI/79160105 |
| We acknowledge the support of projects ANID/FONDECYT/11170486, ANID/PAI/79160105, and ANID/FONDAP/15110009, all funded by ANID-Chile. We are grateful to the two anonymous reviewers, whose comments improved this work. Twentieth century Re-Analysis V2 (20CR), NCEP-NCAR Re-Analysis (NNR), and OLR data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA (https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/ and https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.uninterp_OLR.html, respectively). CFSR and CFSv2 data were downloaded from the NCAR Webpages (https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds093.0/ and https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds094.0/, respectively). The observed Wheeler and Hendon MJO index was obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt). The authors thank the availability of the reconstructed MJO index calculated by E.C.J. Oliver and K.R. Thompson, provided by Eric C.J. Oliver on his personal Web page (http://passage.phys.ocean.dal.ca/~oli-vere/histmjo.html). Thanks to all who work hard fighting this pandemic. The last version of this paper was finished during a heat wave. |