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| DOI | 10.1017/GOV.2020.18 | ||||
| Año | 2021 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Pedro P. Kuczynski (Peru 2018) and Evo Morales (Bolivia 2019) are the most recent cases in a long list of Latin American presidents who have been forced out of office. We seek to contribute to understanding why some presidents fail to fulfil their terms by analysing the role of an actor overlooked by the extant literature on presidential failures: political parties. We hypothesize a non-linear relation between party institutionalization and the risk of presidential failure. That is, when parties are weakly or highly institutionalized, the hazard of presidential failure is lower than when parties are moderately institutionalized. We test this and other hypotheses with a survival analysis of 157 Latin American administrations (1979-2018). We also qualitatively explore how the occurrence (or non-occurrence) of certain events affects the risk of failure in three countries with different levels of party institutionalization. We find that party institutionalization - as well as legislative support, anti-government demonstrations, presidential scandals and economic growth - significantly affects the risk of presidential failure.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
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| 1 | Martinez, Christopher A. | Hombre |
Universidad Católica de Temuco - Chile
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| Agradecimiento |
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| I thank Juan Carlos Arellano, Raymond Tatalovich, Mariana Llanos and Rodrigo Cuevas for their insightful suggestions. I am also grateful to the editor and the three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and constructive criticism, and to John Polga-Hecimovich, Carla Alberti and Sergio Toro for their feedback on earlier versions of this work. This research has been funded by FONDECYT Iniciacion, Grant No. 11160438. |
| Acknowledgements. I thank Juan Carlos Arellano, Raymond Tatalovich, Mariana Llanos and Rodrigo Cuevas for their insightful suggestions. I am also grateful to the editor and the three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and constructive criticism, and to John Polga-Hecimovich, Carla Alberti and Sergio Toro for their feedback on earlier versions of this work. This research has been funded by FONDECYT Iniciación, Grant No. 11160438. |