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SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives
Indexado
WoS WOS:000577827800001
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85092395169
DOI 10.3389/FPUBH.2020.00489
Año 2020
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



This paper provides an estimation of the accumulated detection rates and the accumulated number of infected individuals by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Worldwide, on July 20, it has been estimated above 160 million individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, it is found that only about 1 out of 11 infected individuals are detected. In an information context in which population-based seroepidemiological studies are not frequently available, this study shows a parsimonious alternative to provide estimates of the number of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. By comparing our estimates with those provided by the population-based seroepidemiological ENE-COVID study in Spain, we confirm the utility of our approach. Then, using a cross-country regression, we investigated if differences in detection rates are associated with differences in the cumulative number of deaths. The hypothesis investigated in this study is that higher levels of detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections can reduce the risk exposure of the susceptible population with a relatively higher risk of death. Our results show that, on average, detecting 5 instead of 35 percent of the infections is associated with multiplying the number of deaths by a factor of about 6. Using this result, we estimated that 120 days after the pandemic outbreak, if the US would have tested with the same intensity as South Korea, about 85,000 out of their 126,000 reported deaths could have been avoided.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Frontiers In Public Health 2296-2565

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Villalobos, Carlos Hombre Universidad de Talca - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
Universidad de Talca
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
UKM

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
The author would like to thank and acknowledge Dr. Carlos Chavez for comments of a very early version of this paper. I would also like to thank M.Sc. Andrea Torres for their comments on the implications of this research. The author also would like to recognize the suggestions and comments provided by the participants at the Doctoral Seminar at Facultad de Econom?a y Negocios, Universidad de Talca.

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