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| DOI | 10.1038/S41598-019-44614-4 | ||||
| Año | 2019 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Although Heat Waves (HWs) are expected to increase due to global warming, they are a regional phenomenon that demands for local analyses. In this paper, we assess four HW metrics (HW duration, HW frequency, HW amplitude, and number of HWs per season) as well as the share of extremely warm days (TX95, according to the 95th percentile) in South America (SA). Our analysis included observations as well as simulations from global and regional models. In particular, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to project both TX95 estimates and HW metrics according to two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that in recent decades the share of extremely warm days has at least doubled over the period December-January-February (DJF) in northern SA; less significant increases have been observed in southern SA. We also found that by midcentury, under the RCP4.5 scenario, extremely warm DJF days (as well as the number of HWs per season) are expected to increase by 5-10 times at locations close to the Equator and in the Atacama Desert. Increases are expected to be less pronounced in southern SA. Projections under the RCP8.5 scenario are more striking, particularly in tropical areas where half or more of the days could be extremely warm by midcentury.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feron, Sarah | Mujer |
Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
Universidad de Stanford - Estados Unidos Stanford University - Estados Unidos |
| 2 | CORDERO-CARRASCO, RAUL RODRIGO | Hombre |
Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
|
| 3 | Damiani, Alessandro | Hombre |
Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
Chiba Univ - Japón Chiba University - Japón |
| 4 | Llanillo, Pedro | Hombre |
Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
|
| 5 | Jorquera, Jose | Hombre |
Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
|
| 6 | SEPULVEDA-VALENZUELA, EDGARDO JAVIER | Hombre |
Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
|
| 7 | Asencio, Valentina | Mujer |
Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
|
| 8 | LAROZE-NAVARRETE, DAVID NICOLAS | Hombre |
Universidad de Tarapacá - Chile
|
| 9 | LABBE-ZEPEDA, FERNANDO | Hombre |
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
|
| 10 | CARRASCO-CERDA, JORGE FERNANDO | Hombre |
Universidad de Magallanes - Chile
|
| 11 | Torres, G. | Hombre |
Direcc Meteorol Chile - Chile
Direccion Meteorologica de Chile - Chile |
| Fuente |
|---|
| FONDECYT |
| Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico |
| Universidad de Santiago de Chile |
| U.S. Department of Energy |
| Corporación de Fomento de la Producción |
| Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y TecnologÃa |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo CientÃfico y Tecnológico |
| Office of Biological and Environmental Research |
| Corporación de Fomento de la Producción |
| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
| Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) |
| Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONICYT) |
| Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH, Preis) |
| U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program |
| Corporacion de Fomento de la Produccion (CORFO, Preis) |
| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office |
| DOE INCITE |
| Biological and Environmental Research |
| Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| The support of the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONICYT, Anillo ACT1410, as well as Fondecyt 1151034 and 1171690) and the Corporacion de Fomento de la Produccion (CORFO, Preis 16BPE2-66227, 17BPE73748, & 18BPCR-89100), and the Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH, Preis USA1555), is gratefully acknowledged. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. The CPC Global Temperature dataset and the dataset was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. |
| The support of the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONICYT, Anillo ACT1410, as well as Fondecyt 1151034 and 1171690) and the Corporación de Fomento de la Producción (CORFO, Preis 16BPE2-66227, 17BPE-73748, & 18BPCR-89100), and the Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH, Preis USA1555), is gratefully acknowledged. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. The CPC Global Temperature dataset and the dataset was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl. noaa.gov/psd/. |