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Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America
Indexado
WoS WOS:000469912700014
Scopus SCOPUS_ID:85066611146
DOI 10.1038/S41598-019-44614-4
Año 2019
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



Although Heat Waves (HWs) are expected to increase due to global warming, they are a regional phenomenon that demands for local analyses. In this paper, we assess four HW metrics (HW duration, HW frequency, HW amplitude, and number of HWs per season) as well as the share of extremely warm days (TX95, according to the 95th percentile) in South America (SA). Our analysis included observations as well as simulations from global and regional models. In particular, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to project both TX95 estimates and HW metrics according to two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that in recent decades the share of extremely warm days has at least doubled over the period December-January-February (DJF) in northern SA; less significant increases have been observed in southern SA. We also found that by midcentury, under the RCP4.5 scenario, extremely warm DJF days (as well as the number of HWs per season) are expected to increase by 5-10 times at locations close to the Equator and in the Atacama Desert. Increases are expected to be less pronounced in southern SA. Projections under the RCP8.5 scenario are more striking, particularly in tropical areas where half or more of the days could be extremely warm by midcentury.

Revista



Revista ISSN
Scientific Reports 2045-2322

Métricas Externas



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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Scopus
Multidisciplinary
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 Feron, Sarah Mujer Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
Universidad de Stanford - Estados Unidos
Stanford University - Estados Unidos
2 CORDERO-CARRASCO, RAUL RODRIGO Hombre Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
3 Damiani, Alessandro Hombre Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
Chiba Univ - Japón
Chiba University - Japón
4 Llanillo, Pedro Hombre Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
5 Jorquera, Jose Hombre Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
6 SEPULVEDA-VALENZUELA, EDGARDO JAVIER Hombre Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
7 Asencio, Valentina Mujer Universidad de Santiago de Chile - Chile
8 LAROZE-NAVARRETE, DAVID NICOLAS Hombre Universidad de Tarapacá - Chile
9 LABBE-ZEPEDA, FERNANDO Hombre Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
10 CARRASCO-CERDA, JORGE FERNANDO Hombre Universidad de Magallanes - Chile
11 Torres, G. Hombre Direcc Meteorol Chile - Chile
Direccion Meteorologica de Chile - Chile

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Financiamiento



Fuente
FONDECYT
Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología
Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico
Universidad de Santiago de Chile
U.S. Department of Energy
Corporación de Fomento de la Producción
Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología
Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico
Office of Biological and Environmental Research
Corporación de Fomento de la Producción
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONICYT)
Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH, Preis)
U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program
Corporacion de Fomento de la Produccion (CORFO, Preis)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office
DOE INCITE
Biological and Environmental Research
Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
The support of the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONICYT, Anillo ACT1410, as well as Fondecyt 1151034 and 1171690) and the Corporacion de Fomento de la Produccion (CORFO, Preis 16BPE2-66227, 17BPE73748, & 18BPCR-89100), and the Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH, Preis USA1555), is gratefully acknowledged. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. The CPC Global Temperature dataset and the dataset was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.
The support of the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONICYT, Anillo ACT1410, as well as Fondecyt 1151034 and 1171690) and the Corporación de Fomento de la Producción (CORFO, Preis 16BPE2-66227, 17BPE-73748, & 18BPCR-89100), and the Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH, Preis USA1555), is gratefully acknowledged. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. The CPC Global Temperature dataset and the dataset was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl. noaa.gov/psd/.

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.