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| DOI | 10.1016/J.STRUSAFE.2019.101909 | ||||
| Año | 2020 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Fuzzy probability offers a framework for taking into account the effects of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty on the performance of a system, quantifying its level of safety, for example, in terms of a fuzzy failure probability. However, the practical application of fuzzy probability is often challenging due to increased numerical efforts arising from the need to propagate both types of uncertainties. Hence, this contribution proposes an approach for approximate calculation of fuzzy failure probabilities for a class of problems that involve moderately nonlinear performance functions, where uncertain input parameters of a model are characterized as random variables while their associated distribution parameters (for example, mean and standard deviation) are described as fuzzy variables. The proposed approach is cast as a post-processing step of a standard (yet advanced) reliability analysis. The key issue for performing an approximate calculation of the fuzzy failure probabilities is extracting probability sensitivity information from the reliability analysis stage as well as the introduction of intervening variables that capture - to some extent - the nonlinear relation between distribution parameters and the failure probability. A series of relatively simple illustrative examples demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed approach, highlighting its numerical advantages, as it comprises a single standard reliability analysis plus some additional system analyses.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VALDEBENITO-CASTILLO, MARCOS ALBERTO | Hombre |
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
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| 2 | Beer, M. | Hombre |
Leibniz Univ Hannover - Alemania
UNIV LIVERPOOL - Reino Unido Tongji Univ - China Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität - Alemania University of Liverpool - Reino Unido Tongji University - China Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover - Alemania |
| 3 | JENSEN-VELASCO, HECTOR ANTONIO | Hombre |
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María - Chile
|
| 4 | Chen, Jian Bing | - |
Tongji Univ - China
Tongji University - China State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering - China |
| 5 | Wei, Pengfei | - |
Leibniz Univ Hannover - Alemania
Northwestern Polytech Univ - China Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität - Alemania Northwestern Polytechnical University - China Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover - Alemania |
| Fuente |
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| Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica |
| Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María |
| Alexander von Humboldt Foundation |
| CONICYT (National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research) |
| Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung |
| Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover |
| Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria under its program PAC (Programa Asistente Cientifico 2017) |
| Agradecimiento |
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| This research is partially supported by CONICYT (National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research) under Grant No. 1180271 and Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria under its program PAC (Programa Asistente Cientifico 2017). The first author developed this work during a research stay at the Institute for Risk and Reliability (IRZ) of the Leibniz Universitat Hannover, Germany. Both the first and fifth authors conducted this research under the auspice of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. This support is gratefully acknowledged by the authors. |
| This research is partially supported by CONICYT (National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research) under Grant No. 1180271 and Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria under its program PAC (Programa Asistente Cientifico 2017). The first author developed this work during a research stay at the Institute for Risk and Reliability (IRZ) of the Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany. Both the first and fifth authors conducted this research under the auspice of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. This support is gratefully acknowledged by the authors. |