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Climate change projections for the tropical Andes using a regional climate model: Temperature and precipitation simulations for the end of the 21st century
Indexado
WoS WOS:000262749300004
DOI 10.1029/2008JD011021
Año 2009
Tipo artículo de investigación

Citas Totales

Autores Afiliación Chile

Instituciones Chile

% Participación
Internacional

Autores
Afiliación Extranjera

Instituciones
Extranjeras


Abstract



High-elevation tropical mountain regions may be more strongly affected by future climate change than their surrounding lowlands. In the tropical Andes a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will likely affect size and distribution of glaciers and wetlands, ecosystem integrity, and water availability for human consumption, irrigation, and power production. However, detailed projections of future climate change in the tropical Andes are not yet available. Here we present first results for the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) using a regional climate model (RCM) based on two different emission scenarios (A2 and B2). The model adequately simulates the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and temperature but displays a cool and wet bias, in particular along the eastern Andean slope during the wet season, December February. Projections of changes in the 21st century indicate significant warming in the tropical Andes, which is enhanced at higher elevations and further amplified in the middle and upper troposphere. Temperature changes are spatially similar in both scenarios, but the amplitude is significantly higher in RCM-A2. The RCM-A2 scenario also shows a significant increase in interannual temperature variability, while it remains almost unchanged in RCM-B2 when compared to a 20th century control run. Changes in precipitation are spatially much less coherent, with both regions of increased and decreased precipitation across the Andes. These results provide a first attempt at quantifying future climate change in the tropical Andes and could serve as input for impact models to simulate anticipated changes in Andean glaciation, hydrology, and ecosystem integrity.

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Disciplinas de Investigación



WOS
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas

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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional



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Autores - Afiliación



Ord. Autor Género Institución - País
1 URRUTIA-JALABERT, ROCIO BEATRIZ Mujer Univ Massachusetts - Estados Unidos
2 Vuille, M. Hombre Univ Massachusetts - Estados Unidos

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Origen de Citas Identificadas



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Citas identificadas: Las citas provienen de documentos incluidos en la base de datos de DATACIENCIA

Citas Identificadas: 4.35 %
Citas No-identificadas: 95.65 %

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Citas identificadas: Las citas provienen de documentos incluidos en la base de datos de DATACIENCIA

Citas Identificadas: 4.35 %
Citas No-identificadas: 95.65 %

Financiamiento



Fuente
NSF
IAI
University of Massachusetts, Amherst
University of Massachusetts
Fulbright Commission

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Agradecimientos



Agradecimiento
This study forms part of the M. Sc. thesis of R. U. at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. R. U. was funded by a grant from the Fulbright Commission and with support from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and by IAI project CRN-2047. M. V. was funded by NSF-Project EAR-0519415. Many thanks to Ambarish Karmalkar for his assistance with Matlab. We are also grateful for the detailed comments by three anonymous reviewers, which helped us to considerably improve an earlier version of this manuscript.

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