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| DOI | 10.1002/JOC.1716 | ||||
| Año | 2009 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
In this work we document the wind changes between present-day conditions and those projected for the end of the 21st century under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A2 and B2). We first estimate and interpret the changes of the wind field over the southeast Pacific from 15 coupled atmosphere-ocean Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Very consistent among the GCMs is the strengthening of the southerlies along the Subtropical coast as a result of a marked increase in Surface pressure farther south. We then examine the coastal wind changes in more detail using the Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM) with 25 kin horizontal resolution nested in the Hadley Centre Atmospheric global Model (HadAM3). PRECIS results indicate that the largest southerly wind increase occurs between 37-41 degrees S during spring and summer, expanding the upwelling-favourable regime in that region, at the same time that coastal jets at subtropical latitudes will become more frequent and last longer than current events. During fall and winter, the strengthening of the southerlies occurs at subtropical latitudes maintaining a mean jet year-round. Finally, we discuss the possibility that strengthening of the coastal southerlies might actually lead to a relative regional cooling even as the world as a whole continues to warm up. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
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| 1 | GARREAUD-SALAZAR, RENE DARIO | Hombre |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
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| 2 | FALVEY-SINCLAIR, MARK JOHN | Hombre |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
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| Agradecimiento |
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| The PRECIS Simulations were performed for the 'Study on Climate Variability for Chile during the 21st century' supported by the National Environmental Committee (CONAMA-Chile). We acknowledge the modelling groups for making their simulations available for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the CMIP3 model output, and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for organizing the model data analysis activity. The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset is supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. Both authors are supported by CONICYT (Chile) Grant ACT-19. The manuscript was improved through the comments of two anonymous reviewers. |