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| DOI | 10.1111/J.1600-0587.2009.05856.X | ||||
| Año | 2009 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Studies investigating the consequences of future climate changes on species distributions usually start with the assumption that species respond to climate changes in an individualistic fashion. This assumption has led researchers to use bioclimate envelope models that use present climate-range relationships to characterize species' limits of tolerance to climate, and then apply climate-change scenarios to enable projections of altered species distributions. However, there are techniques that combine climate variables together with information on the composition of assemblages to enable projections that are expected to mimic community dynamics. Here, we compare, for the first time, the performance of GLM (generalized linear model) and CQO (canonical quadratic ordination; a type of community-based GLM) for projecting distributions of species under climate change scenarios. We found that projections from these two methods varied both in terms of accuracy (GLM providing generally more accurate projections than CQO) and in the broad diversity patterns yielded (higher species richness values projected with CQO). Model outputs were also affected by species-specific traits, such as species range size and species geographical positions, supporting the view that methods are sensitive to different degrees of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. This study reveals differences in projections between individual- and community-based approaches that require further scrutiny, but it does not find support for unsupervised use community-based models for investigating climate change impacts on species distributions. Reasons for this lack of support are discussed.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baselga, Andres | Hombre |
CSIC - España
Universidad Santiago de Compostela - España CSIC - Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN) - España Universidad de Santiago de Compostela - España Univ Santiago de Compostela - España |
| 2 | ARAUJO, MIGUEL BASTOS | Hombre |
CSIC - España
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile - Chile Univ Evora - Portugal CSIC - Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN) - España University of Évora - Portugal |
| Fuente |
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| Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation |
| Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate Change: Impacts on Biodiversity |
| Challenges in Assessing and Forecasting Biodiversity and Ecosystem Changes in Europe |
| Agradecimiento |
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| Species distributions data was kindly supplied by Raino Lampinen. We also thank Thomas Yee for support on the use of the VGAM package, Jeremy Kerr and three anonymous referees for their comments. Research is funded by the EC FP6 MACIS (Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate Change: Impacts on Biodiversity, contract number 044399) project. MBA was also funded by EC FP6 ECOCHANGE project (Challenges in Assessing and Forecasting Biodiversity and Ecosystem Changes in Europe, Contract No 036866-GOCE) and by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Complementary Action No CGL2008-01198-E/BOS). |