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| DOI | 10.1002/JOC.6219 | ||||
| Año | 2020 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
Central Chile, home to more than 10 million inhabitants, has experienced an uninterrupted sequence of dry years since 2010 with mean rainfall deficits of 20-40%. The so-called Mega Drought (MD) is the longest event on record and with few analogues in the last millennia. It encompasses a broad area, with detrimental effects on water availability, vegetation and forest fires that have scaled into social and economical impacts. Observations and reanalysis data reveal that the exceptional length of the MD results from the prevalence of a circulation dipole-hindering the passage of extratropical storms over central Chile-characterized by deep tropospheric anticyclonic anomalies over the subtropical Pacific and cyclonic anomalies over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major modulator of such dipole, but the MD has occurred mostly under ENSO-neutral conditions, except for the winters of 2010 (La Nina) and 2015 (strong El Nino). Climate model simulations driven both with historical forcing (natural and anthropogenic) and observed global SST replicate the south Pacific dipole and capture part of the rainfall anomalies. Idealized numerical experiments suggest that most of the atmospheric anomalies emanate from the subtropical southwest Pacific, a region that has experienced a marked surface warming over the last decade. Such warming may excite atmospheric Rossby waves whose propagation intensifies the circulation pattern leading to dry conditions in central Chile. On the other hand, anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases concentration increase and stratospheric ozone depletion) and the associated positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode also contribute to the strength of the south Pacific dipole and hence to the intensity and longevity of the MD. Given the concomitance of the seemingly natural (ocean sourced) and anthropogenic forcing, we anticipate only a partial recovery of central Chile precipitation in the decades to come.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GARREAUD-SALAZAR, RENE DARIO | Hombre |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
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| 2 | BOISIER-ECHENIQUE, JUAN PABLO | Hombre |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
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| 3 | RONDANELLI-ROJAS, ROBERTO FRANCISCO | Hombre |
Universidad de Chile - Chile
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| 4 | MONTECINOS-GULA, ALDO MANUEL | Hombre |
Universidad de Concepción - Chile
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| 5 | SEPULVEDA-ALLENDE, HECTOR HITO | Hombre |
Universidad de Concepción - Chile
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| 6 | Veloso-Aguila, Daniel | Hombre |
Universidad de Concepción - Chile
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| Fuente |
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| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico |
| Conicyt Chile |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo CientÃfico y Tecnológico |
| Agradecimiento |
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| CONICYT Chile, Grant/Award Numbers: FONDAP 15110009, FONDECYT 1170286 |
| This research emerged from the collaboration with many colleagues at the Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2, CONICYT/FONDAP/15110009) that also provided partial funding. R.G. also acknowledges for support by Fondecyt project 1170286. We thank two anonymous reviewers for constructive criticism and comments on the manuscript. |