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| DOI | 10.1016/J.PHYSA.2010.11.020 | ||||
| Año | 2011 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
It is widely known that commodity markets are not totally efficient. Long-range dependence is present, and thus the celebrated Brownian motion of prices can be considered only as a first approximation. In this work we analyzed the predictability in commodity markets by using a novel approach derived from Information Theory. The complexity-entropy causality plane has been recently shown to be a useful statistical tool to distinguish the stage of stock market development because differences between emergent and developed stock markets can be easily discriminated and visualized with this representation space [L. Zunino, M. Zanin, B.M. Tabak, D.G. Perez, O.A. Rosso, Complexity-entropy causality plane: a useful approach to quantify the stock market inefficiency, Physica A 389 (2010) 1891-1901]. By estimating the permutation entropy and permutation statistical complexity of twenty basic commodity future markets over a period of around 20 years (1991.01.02-2009.09.01), we can define an associated ranking of efficiency. This ranking is quantifying the presence of patterns and hidden structures in these prime markets. Moreover, the temporal evolution of the commodities in the complexity-entropy causality plane allows us to identify periods of time where the underlying dynamics is more or less predictable. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zunino, Luciano | Hombre |
CONICET La Plata CIC - Argentina
CSIC UIB - España UNIV NACL LA PLATA - Argentina CSIC-UIB - Instituto de Fisica Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (IFISC) - España Centro de Investigaciones Ópticas (CONICET la Plata - CIC) - Argentina Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional de La Plata - Argentina Universitat de les Illes Balears - España Comision de Investigaciones Cientificas - La Plata - Argentina |
| 2 | Tabak, Benjamin M. | Hombre |
Banco Cent Brasil - Brasil
Univ Catolica Brasilia - Brasil Universidade Católica de Brasília - Brasil Central Bank of Brazil - Brasil |
| 3 | Serinaldi, Francesco | Hombre |
Univ Tuscia - Italia
Università degli Studi della Tuscia Viterbo - Italia |
| 4 | Zanin, Massimiliano | Hombre |
UNIV AUTONOMA MADRID - España
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid - España |
| 5 | PEREZ, DARIO GABRIEL | Hombre |
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso - Chile
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| 6 | Rosso, Osvaldo A. | Hombre |
Univ Fed Minas Gerais - Brasil
UNIV BUENOS AIRES - Argentina Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - Brasil University of Buenos Aires Instituto de Cálculo - Argentina |
| Fuente |
|---|
| Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
| Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica |
| Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior |
| CAPES, Brazil |
| Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso |
| Comisión Nacional de Investigación CientÃfica y Tecnológica |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico, Tecnológico y de Innovación Tecnológica |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo CientÃfico, Tecnológico y de Innovación Tecnológica |
| Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones CientÃficas y Técnicas |
| Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET), Argentina |
| Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior |
| Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso (PUCV), Chile |
| Pontificia Universidad Católica de ValparaÃso |
| Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT, FONDECYT), Chile |
| CNPq foundation |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| The authors would like to thank C.G. Turvey (Cornell University, US) and three anonymous reviewers for their useful comments and suggestions. Luciano Zunino and Osvaldo A. Rosso were supported by Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET), Argentina. Benjamin M. Tabak gratefully acknowledges financial support from CNPq foundation. The opinions expressed in the paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Banco Central do Brasil. Dario G. Perez was supported by Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT, FONDECYT project No. 1100753), Chile, and partially by Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso (PUCV, Project No. 123.704/2010), Chile. Osvaldo A. Rosso is PVE fellowship, CAPES, Brazil. |
| The authors would like to thank C.G. Turvey (Cornell University, US) and three anonymous reviewers for their useful comments and suggestions. Luciano Zunino and Osvaldo A. Rosso were supported by Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina. Benjamin M. Tabak gratefully acknowledges financial support from CNPq foundation . The opinions expressed in the paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Banco Central do Brasil. Darío G. Pérez was supported by Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica (CONICYT, FONDECYT project No. 1100753), Chile, and partially by Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso (PUCV, Project No. 123.704/2010), Chile. Osvaldo A. Rosso is PVE fellowship, CAPES, Brazil. |