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| DOI | 10.1016/J.JECONOM.2009.10.008 | ||||
| Año | 2011 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
The empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by Deaton and Laroque (1992, 1995, 1996). Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in the prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the Deaton and Laroque (1995, 1996) model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that the use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has a low response to price and, except for sugar, stockouts are infrequent. The observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cafiero, Carlo | Hombre |
Univ Naples Federico 2 - Italia
Università Degli Studi di Napoli Federico II - Italia |
| 2 | BOBENRIETH-HOCHFARBER, EUGENIO SEBASTIAN ANTONIO | Hombre |
Universidad de Concepción - Chile
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| 3 | Bobenrieth H, Juan R. A. | Hombre |
Universidad del Bío Bío - Chile
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| 4 | Wright, Brian | Hombre |
UNIV CALIF BERKELEY - Estados Unidos
University of California, Berkeley - Estados Unidos |
| Fuente |
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| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico |
| Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica |
| U.S. Department of Agriculture |
| Dirección de investigación Universidad de Concepción |
| Direccion de Investigacion Universidad del Bio-Bio |
| CONICYT/Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cientifico y Tecnologico (FONDECYT) |
| Energy Biosciences Initiative |
| USDA CSREES National Research Initiative |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| Work on this paper was supported by USDA CSREES National Research Initiative Grant No. 2005-35400-15978, Energy Biosciences Initiative, CONICYT/Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cientifico y Tecnologico (FONDECYT) Projects 1090017 and 1050562, Direccion de Investigacion Universidad de Concepcion and Direccion de Investigacion Universidad del Bio-Bio. Brian Wright is a member of the Giannini Foundation. We would like to thank two excellent anonymous referees for their advice, Elisabeth Sadoulet and Alain de Janvry for their support, and Betty Dow of the Development Prospects Group at the World Bank, for her help in providing the recent price data and resolving other data issues. We acknowledge the excellent assistance of Ernesto Guerra V. |
| Work on this paper was supported by USDA CSREES National Research Initiative Grant No. 2005-35400-15978, Energy Biosciences Initiative, CONICYT/Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cientifico y Tecnologico (FONDECYT) Projects 1090017 and 1050562, Dirección de Investigación Universidad de Concepción and Dirección de Investigación Universidad del Bío-Bío. Brian Wright is a member of the Giannini Foundation. We would like to thank two excellent anonymous referees for their advice, Elisabeth Sadoulet and Alain de Janvry for their support, and Betty Dow of the Development Prospects Group at the World Bank, for her help in providing the recent price data and resolving other data issues. We acknowledge the excellent assistance of Ernesto Guerra V. |