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| DOI | 10.1016/J.ASOC.2012.10.014 | ||||
| Año | 2013 | ||||
| Tipo | artículo de investigación |
Citas Totales
Autores Afiliación Chile
Instituciones Chile
% Participación
Internacional
Autores
Afiliación Extranjera
Instituciones
Extranjeras
A new earthquake prediction system is presented in this work. This method, based on the application of artificial neural networks, has been used to predict earthquakes in Chile, one of the countries with larger seismic activity. The input values are related to the b-value, the Bath's law, and the Omori-Utsu's law, parameters that are strongly correlated with seismicity, as shown in solid previous works. Two kind of prediction are provided in this study: The probability that an earthquake of magnitude larger than a threshold value happens, and the probability that an earthquake of a limited magnitude interval might occur, both during the next five days in the areas analyzed. For the four Chile's seismic regions examined, with epicenters placed on meshes with dimensions varying from 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees to 1 degrees x 1 degrees, a prototype of neuronal network is presented. The prototypes predict an earthquake every time the probability of an earthquake of magnitude larger than a threshold is sufficiently high. The threshold values have been adjusted with the aim of obtaining as few false positives as possible. The accuracy of the method has been assessed in retrospective experiments by means of statistical tests and compared with well-known machine learning classifiers. The high success rate achieved supports the suitability of applying soft computing in this field and poses new challenges to be addressed. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
| Ord. | Autor | Género | Institución - País |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reyes-Molina, Jorge | Hombre |
TGT - Chile
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| 2 | Morales-Esteban, A. | Hombre |
Universidad de Sevilla - España
University of Seville - España Univ Seville - España |
| 3 | Martinez-Alvarez, F. | Hombre |
Pablo de Olavide Univ Seville - España
University of Seville - España Universidad Pablo de Olavide, de Sevilla - España |
| Fuente |
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| Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología |
| Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology |
| Ministerio de Ciencia y TecnologÃa |
| TGT |
| JPI |
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| The authors want to thank TGT-www.geofisica.cl for the support through grants number 2210 and 2211. The financial support given by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology, projects BIA2004-01302 and TIN2011-28956-C02-01 are equally acknowledged. This work has also been partially funded by a JPI 2012 Banco Santander's grant. Finally, the authors want to thank the reviewers for their careful reviews and helpful suggestions. |
| The authors want to thank TGT - www.geofisica.cl for the support through grants number 2210 and 2211 . The financial support given by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology , projects BIA2004-01302 and TIN2011-28956-C02-01 are equally acknowledged. This work has also been partially funded by a JPI 2012 Banco Santander's grant. Finally, the authors want to thank the reviewers for their careful reviews and helpful suggestions. |